Walt Disney World is having a gradual summer time. One other one. This doesn’t imply that the parks are useless or ghost cities. Calling the parks empty is an exaggeration. Nonetheless, attendance has decreased noticeably, wait occasions are down, ADR availability is ample, and the corporate continues to drag new levers to entice locals and followers again to the parks. We dig into the information and provide our theories for the summer time slowdown.
The one factor summer time hasn’t been, although, is peak season. Not for a very long time. Again on June 26, 2017 we first revealed: Summer season Is Not Peak Season at Walt Disney World. That defined how, regardless of the traditional knowledge that Memorial Day by way of Labor Day is the busiest stretch of the yr in Florida, summer time crowds weren’t as dangerous as up to now. It supplied a number of potential theories explaining the why of this.
Final yr, we adopted that up with Summer season (Nonetheless) Is NOT Excessive Crowds Season at Walt Disney World. In order for you a recap of 2016-2018, 2019, 2020, 2021-2022, and 2023-2024 (all listed individually as a result of they’ve their very own distinctive wrinkles), so the primary half of that publish. It explains the Star Wars Stoop, “Revenge Journey,” overly aggressive pricing, and extra. We’re revisiting the subject once more in 2025 as a result of this yr is as soon as once more its personal new ‘period’ and crowds have been even decrease to this point in Summer season 2025.
You may discover that the titles of those posts have ‘advanced’ over time. The primary was that summer time is just not peak season. The second was that it’s not excessive crowds season. This one is that summer time is the new decrease crowds season. None of that’s coincidental. This development began a few decade in the past, however contrasting crowd ranges from these summers with in the present day makes them look downright packed by comparability. (It is because general Walt Disney World attendance nonetheless doesn’t even strategy its peak 2018-2019 ranges.)
Actually, Summer season 2025 has been so gradual to this point that I used to be tempted to make use of the phrase “low season” within the title. Once I first began engaged on this, there was a robust case to be made that this summer time was proving to be the low season. The final week solid doubt on that, and even when it hadn’t, there’s additionally the fact that August and September can be slower than June and July. Can we actually have a 4-month low season stretch?
From my perspective, the reply is not any. Low season signifies the bottom of the low. Not solely that, but when summer time is the low season, the “shoulder season” earlier than it begins to lose that means. So as an alternative we’ll stick to cumbersome verbiage to explain what summer time has develop into. It’s positively not peak season, nevertheless it additionally isn’t low season (but). It’s someplace in between. A brand new elbow season, if you’ll.
Although June was the least-busy month of 2025, it’ll doubtless be surpassed by the subsequent 3 months. Not solely that, however loads of different busier (as a complete) months do have decrease lows; they’re simply accompanied by larger highs to stability out averages. June has a tighter vary to crowd ranges, with out a lot in the best way of spikes or sharp drops. Maybe we should always name summer time the “persistently uncomfortable season,” which is imprecise but 100% correct.
Earlier than we talk about the potential explanations for why summer time is (but once more) slower at Walt Disney World, let’s check out wait occasions. As all the time, all graphs and stats are courtesy of thrill-data.com.
June 2025 Crowds
June has been the slowest month of the yr to this point, with a mean wait time of 31 minutes and a crowd degree of two/10. As all the time, that’s an common, which nonetheless implies that hour-plus waits (and even 90+ minutes!) are doable for the headliners at peak occasions. They’re simply offset by 5-10 minute waits for decrease profile sights.
There have additionally been loads of days which have been busier than that common. June 2-3 had 36-37 minute waits for five/10 and 6/10 crowd ranges; June 23-24 had 35 minute averages for five/10 crowds. Against this, June 12-15 was the slowest stretch of the month, with wait occasions bottoming out at 22 minutes (1/10 crowds) and by no means exceeding half-hour (on common) for that stretch.
To the purpose about extra constant crowd ranges throughout summer time, it’s value declaring that at the same time as June ranks 6 (out of 6) for crowd ranges to this point in 2025, it nonetheless solely had two actually ‘useless’ days. Actually, should you zoom out additional, there wasn’t a single day in June that was among the many least busy 30 days within the final yr. There have been many dates from final August by way of December that beat June (though hurricane scares performed a task in September and October).
Not that it’s any shock at this level, however weekends are much less busy than weekdays. It is a development that’s a number of years operating, however is amplified throughout summer time and minimized as soon as Get together Season begins. As a complete, June 2025 was barely much less busy than Might, which was barely much less busy than April (one minute month-to-month decreases in each circumstances).
When you’re attempting to trend-spot or time a trip subsequent summer time, the final week of June was the busiest and the second week of the month (main as much as Father’s Day) was least busy. These are about as near patterns as we get for summer time journey, and you may most likely count on one thing comparable in June 2026. Apart from that, probably not a ton that’s value speaking about. Summer season is the least fascinating season for crowds because it tends to be essentially the most constant.
Earlier than we flip to potential explanations, let’s preemptively rule out something that falls aside when inspecting the heavy crowds over Easter, or the potential for year-over-year will increase throughout October, excessive crowds at Thanksgiving, Christmas, New 12 months’s, or in Winter 2026.
Principally, any principle that will be contradicted by larger crowds in the previous couple of months or the subsequent few months is off the desk (e.g. larger costs, fewer perks, Disney’s declining status). This will appear apparent, nevertheless it’s however obligatory as a result of discussing attendance has develop into a loaded challenge with many followers who wish to see their very own narratives bolstered. When you imagine that Disney is doomed or failing due to X or Y, that’s actually your prerogative, however X or Y as an evidence form of falls aside when crowds get loopy–and they’ll, later this yr.
With that out of the best way, let’s speak theories as to why summer time is slower now than it was again within the day…
Epic Universe
We would as properly begin with the elephant within the room: Epic Universe. That is the place we start not as a result of I imagine it’s the #1 rationalization for decrease crowds at Walt Disney World. However quite, as a result of that is the #1 rationale that many followers will proffer–particularly these desirous to see Disney “taken down a notch.”
My unpopular opinion is that Epic Universe has near no internet affect on summer time crowds at Walt Disney World. It does undoubtedly have some affect on the margins, and there are numerous anecdotes (we’ve heard ’em!) about followers skipping Walt Disney World for Common this yr. That’s unquestionably taking place. Nonetheless, new guests are additionally being drawn to Orlando resulting from Epic Universe and likewise visiting Walt Disney World because of this (the “rising tides lifts all ships” thesis).
It’s not even essential to get into all of these anecdotes and theories to find out which facet is “successful,” as a result of we now have information. As defined in our Epic Universe 2025 Crowd Calendar Predictions: Excessive Crowds Regardless of Low Attendance?!, Epic Universe ticket gross sales are low.
On a mean day this summer time, Epic Universe is greeting fewer company than Animal Kingdom. That’s not good. Whereas excessive wait occasions usually mirror excessive attendance, they’ll additionally mirror low capability. That’s the true story of Epic Universe to this point: excessive wait occasions resulting from low throughput masking low attendance (bought all that?!).
We are able to additionally look to attend occasions information for Common Orlando. The resort as a complete is about on par with final yr’s numbers, however should you have a look at solely Islands of Journey and Common Studios Florida (the 2 parks open final summer time), they’re down in Summer season 2025 versus final yr. So both Epic Universe is cannibalizing attendance at Walt Disney World and Common Orlando (however disproportionately the latter), or there are higher explanations as to why each operators proceed the downtrend. In our view, it’s the latter.
Worldwide Journey
In the course of the most up-to-date earnings name, Disney CFO Hugh Johnston was requested if the home parks have seen a success to worldwide visitation (causes mentioned in Canadians Are Canceling Walt Disney World Holidays).
By way of the attendance, Johnston indicated that worldwide attendance on the home parks nonetheless has not gotten again to pre-COVID ranges (this isn’t a brand new improvement), however it’s nonetheless within the double-digits. As for current worldwide visitation, Walt Disney World and Disneyland have “seen a little bit of an affect” of roughly 1% to 1.5% declines.
What Disney expects going ahead is one thing much like that, however the firm factors out that it’s “greater than making up for it with home attendance–attendance on the parks has been terrific.” Extra broadly talking, information reveals that demand from Canada has dropped sharply, and there are early indicators (surveys and statements from airways) suggesting an analogous dynamic from Europe.
Nonetheless, as we mentioned within the aforementioned article about Canada (and Disney’s personal information reinforces), worldwide vacationers will not be that vital of a demographic for Walt Disney World. If each single worldwide customer stayed house, it will be very noticeable–however that’s not even near what’s taking place. It’s a downtick of some share factors, at most.
It’s additionally unclear whether or not the worst of that is already within the rearview mirror. The Better Orlando Aviation Authority simply launched stats for Might 2025, they usually’re illuminating. Worldwide passenger visitors was up 9.3% for the month, whereas home passenger visitors was down 4.2% for a mixed lower of two.6%. The rolling 12-month complete stands at 56.5 million annual passengers.
Worldwide visitors now accounts for 14.6% of passengers at MCO, an all-time excessive, surpassing the earlier report from the summer time of 2019, with a mean of over 22,500 worldwide passengers per day. After all, MCO did add a brand new terminal, which has contributed to its record-setting run, however that was practically 3 years in the past at this level. Anybody who has handed by way of the legacy terminals within the final year-plus can let you know that MCO is insanely busy…just about on a regular basis!
Financial Uncertainty
Disney’s CFO indicated throughout final December’s earnings name that they should be “good about pricing,” particularly on the decrease finish of the market the place customers are “feeling stress.” (That is comparable sentiment to what quick meals chains and retailers have reported throughout their current earnings calls.)
Johnston stated that Disney has tried to carry costs regular for lower-priced choices on the parks and that many of the worth will increase have been concentrated amongst premium packages or throughout high-demand dates. He added that the corporate needs to “faucet in to these households and construct the behavior of coming to Disneyland or Disney World, not one time, however a number of occasions.”
All of this explains why Walt Disney World has gotten so aggressive with discounting this summer time. As we’ve reported at size elsewhere, you may get the most cost-effective Walt Disney World journey in July 2025 since no less than 2019. That’s form of loopy should you notice how a lot base costs have exploded post-COVID. It is a development we count on to proceed, with higher-occupancy winter months getting dearer and summer time additional reducing in 2026 and past.
On the identical time, we’ve repeatedly cited shopper confidence, financial anxiousness, ongoing inflation, People being squeezed from each route, and extra as the explanation why Walt Disney World might see decreased attendance sooner or later. And but, the primary factor we maintain listening to on company earnings calls is how “resilient” the American shopper is and the way “sturdy” spending stays.
It will appear that folks specific concern, anxiousness, and issues when surveyed about these things, however then behave in a different way. (Actually, survey information additionally bears this out, there’s a decoupling of perceptions in regards to the broader financial system versus their very own funds–and has been for a couple of years.) In different phrases, this can be a non-factor…for now?
Starlight Delays
Then there’s theoretical delayed journeys for Starlight Evening Parade and/or Take a look at Monitor opening, much like the pre-Star Wars Stoop of 2019. I discover this to be implausible at scale. We’ve seen nothing to point a significant variety of company postponed journeys within the lead-up to Guardians of the Galaxy: Cosmic Rewind or TRON Lightcycle Run, nor have been there noticeable spikes after these debuted.
They have been, basically, non-factors. That is truly an fascinating matter in and of itself (one in every of my theories is that the complexity of accessing new sights has given company chilly ft about planning round them), however past the scope of this publish.
Actually, I wouldn’t be shocked Walt Disney World noticed a much bigger bump this vacation season or in early 2026 resulting from Epic Universe (company “ready out the crowds” + “rising tides” thesis) than they’ll from any of their very own upcoming choices. And even then, I don’t suppose the (constructive) Epic impact can be all that significant.
Shifting Schedules
Again after we first tackled this matter in 2017, shifting schedules was supplied as one rationalization–extra colleges switching to year-round calendars with longer breaks all year long. I used to be considerably dismissive, as that was not a sudden prevalence that started in the previous couple of years. College calendars have been trending this manner for a decade or extra.
I’m rather more receptive to this rationalization now. Actually, I’d go so far as to say that that is the darkish horse candidate that most likely isn’t given sufficient credit score. Summer season is essentially the most handy time for many households to go to resulting from faculty breaks. That is the rationale for summer time being the height vacationer season within the first place. For many years, summer time has seen sustained crowds at nearly each vacationer vacation spot, for that very cause.
Nonetheless, we’d posit that this issues much less and fewer within the post-COVID local weather. After prolonged stretches out of college, households are much less “afraid” to drag their youngsters out of college for trip. Not all households and even most households, however simply sufficient to maneuver the needle. Anecdotally, we’ve heard from an increasing number of readers who do precisely this. We are able to’t again it up with exhausting stats, nevertheless it passes the odor check and appears extremely believable to us.
Equally as vital given the rise of the childless Disney Grownup as a core demographic for Walt Disney World is the hybrid work/play journeys. Though many People have confronted return to workplace mandates, distant work remains to be a viable possibility for a lot of, giving rise to a brand new era of digital nomads.
As individuals who did this lengthy earlier than it was normalized by COVID, we’ve noticed this in various locations we frequent. It was once the case that extra fascinating “low season” dates have been cheaper and fewer busy; however now, phrase has gotten out and numbers have leveled out. An illustrative instance of that is winter crowds at Walt Disney World, which proceed to extend comparatively. That’s additionally what makes this the perfect rationalization, in our view, because it reveals the redistribution of attendance in motion.
Excessive Warmth & Humidity
Summer season being unbearably sizzling and humid in Central Florida is just not a current improvement, so this needs to be a year-over-year non-factor. Nonetheless, the previous couple of summers have been particularly brutal and that has garnered headlines. The Orlando space has seen record-setting highs on a number of events, wirth temperatures persistently within the 90s, with “seems like” temperatures properly above 100º.
When you take Disney at its phrase, climate is the overriding issue in the summertime slowdown. It was such a sizzling matter that it drew an evidence from CEO Bob Iger, who attributed the slowness to an exhaustion of pent-up demand in Florida as a complete and unseasonably dangerous climate, even by summer time in Orlando requirements. On subsequent earnings calls, the CEO or CFO have talked about Florida climate on a couple of extra events.
It’s not simply Disney, both. In its quarterly and annual factors, OLC (the proprietor and operator of Tokyo Disney Resort) has repeatedly pointed to climate as the first cause for decrease attendance. On condition that OLC is extra clear about its numbers–and doesn’t have an enormous portfolio of parks to cloud the outcomes–this rationalization strikes us as extra believable. That is taking part in out once more in Summer season 2025, with the final two months being the slowest stretch at Tokyo Disneyland since final August.
In the case of climate, the large wild card now could be consciousness. The web continues to interrupt down boundaries, and what was once an abstraction within the textual content of assorted books and sources is made plainly seen and introduced in additional colourful methods. It’s one factor to examine excessive warmth in Birnbaum’s, it’s one other completely to see your favourite vlogger sweat their manner round World Showcase. The previous you could be extra prone to dismiss, questioning simply how dangerous it may very well be. The latter is rather more vivid–a tangible cautionary story.
Add to that the aforementioned willingness to drag youngsters out of college, and there’s a state of affairs the place households have elevated data decreased incentive to go to in the summertime. Others who’re reluctant or unable to skip faculty may merely be extra inclined to go to throughout breaks.
The motivation level extends to Annual Passholders and locals. Floridians keep house when the forecast turns unseasonably sizzling, humid or wet. A few of them may bear the climate if Disney provides them a cause to take action, as was once the case with summer time celebrations. That hasn’t been true for a couple of years, although. On prime of that, I might hazard a guess that Central Florida’s rising transplant inhabitants is just not suited to summer time climate, and stays within the cooling consolation of air-conditioning through the summer time months (disproportionate to native Floridians).
This comfort-seeking conduct additionally explains why seems like crowds or congestion is decrease through the summer time. Whereas within the winter company may wander round having fun with the environment of the parks, they search refuge indoors like heat-seeking missiles (besides in reverse). That truly might imply that wait occasions are elevated relative to attendance through the summer time months. Anecdotally, I can say with full certainty that the parks usually look useless from June by way of September even when the wait occasions don’t all the time mirror that.
Shorter Hours
I really feel like a damaged report about this, however again after we fell in love with summers at Walt Disney World, the hours have been longer. Though EPCOT and DAK are unchanged, Disney’s Hollywood Studios noticed later closings on Star Wars Weekends nights and Magic Kingdom was open till 11 pm or midnight each evening, with night Further Magic Hours till as late as 3 am.
With the ability to Park Hop to Magic Kingdom and keep as late as 3 am made the summer time warmth extra tolerable to plan round. We might begin early, take a noon break, after which return for ~6 hours after sundown. It made summers satisfying, and was a simple technique to mitigate the excessive warmth.
Fortunately, Starlight will deliver again these 11 pm closings, nevertheless it’s nonetheless perplexing that just one Walt Disney World theme park is presently open for an hour after sundown. There’s a cause why Prolonged Night Hours is a lot extra common through the summer time months, and Walt Disney World is aware of this. But, it looks like a vicious cycle for summer time park hours–with decrease crowds begetting shorter hours.
No Particular Occasions
Talking of particular occasions, one other issue is the dearth of particular occasions to prop up summer time numbers. That is considerably an outgrowth of climate, as a result of Walt Disney World merely can’t schedule runDisney races or out of doors ESPN Large World of Sports activities competitions in June or July. It’s doubtless that Disney Conferences and Fairytale Weddings sees an analogous summer time slowdown.
It’s as soon as once more Food plan EPCOT through the summer time, with that being telegraphed far prematurely for 2025. (Final yr, no less than there was the launch of CommuniCore Corridor.) To be honest, there’s GoofyCore Corridor and Cool Child Summer season because the summer time push, however that’s largely advertising and marketing. It’s not just like the summer time ‘spectaculars’ of previous, and I can’t think about that an considerable variety of guests booked for the substance of Cool Child Summer season. (The reductions are a special story.)
All of that is exactly why we anticipated a brand new pageant at EPCOT or a revival of Summer season Nightastic. Walt Disney World used to have blockbuster occasions that kicked off Memorial Day weekend, and made summer time an thrilling time to go to regardless of the climate. Possibly we’ll see a return to that in 2026, as even aggressive reductions haven’t moved the needle a lot.
Minimal Mitigation
I additionally really feel like a damaged report about this, however Imagineering has seemingly constructed all of its current expansions for the California local weather. Toy Story Land, Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge, World Celebration, and extra are completely depressing ~8 months of the yr. There’s little shade providing a technique to escape the warmth or summer time showers.
It’s actually mind-boggling that Walt Disney World has not solely accomplished nothing by way of mitigation measures, however they’ve as an alternative actively constructed issues for a extra Mediterranean local weather. The most well-liked and latest areas of the parks–the locations individuals spend a disproportionate period of time–being particularly disagreeable through the summer time has doubtless contributed to visitor perceptions that summers are much less comfy at Walt Disney World.
There are doubtless different variables I’m overlooking that would assist clarify why summer time attendance has been down. Different components could be at play, and in combination might have a noticeable affect, however I believe these variables could be one thing guests wouldn’t discover if it weren’t for the pricing, post-COVID schedule disruptions, and the climate.
In the end, it’s true that wait occasions have been below-average to this point in Summer season 2025. Not fairly low season ranges however not even rising to reasonable. It’s additionally true that this isn’t a current improvement. Summer season being slower was the new-normal for a couple of years pre-COVID closures, and that development has solely accelerated since. Judging by the wait occasions we’re presently seeing, not even Walt Disney World’s lowest costs since no less than 2019 might reverse the development. It’ll be fascinating to see which new levers they pull for 2026.
Earlier than you learn all of this and suppose that summer time immediately appears like a good time to go to, uh, don’t. When you beforehand dominated out a summer time trip to Walt Disney World, contemplate the chance that you simply did so for good cause. I’m not saying you’ll have a nasty time–as we frequently say, “a wet day at Walt Disney World is healthier than an ideal day at house.” That’s true as all the time.
What I’ll say is that no matter “beneficial properties” you’ll expertise throughout summer time at Walt Disney World by advantage of objectively decrease crowd ranges and wait occasions can be worn out by subjectively inferior every part else. When you pressured me to decide on between mid-June and mid-December, I might select the latter with out hesitation. I might take 5/10 crowds with nice climate and seasonal occasions over 1/10 crowds with depressing climate and nothing particular taking place. And it’s not even a remotely shut name. Judging by all the above, it will appear that I’m removed from alone on this sentiment.
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Your Ideas
Do you agree or disagree with our evaluation as to why summer time crowds at Walt Disney World have been below-average? Or, do you disagree completely, and suppose it’s been as busy–or busier–than regular? Any observations about attendance tendencies through the fall months that comply with this summer time dip? Listening to your suggestions about your experiences is each fascinating to us and useful to different readers, so please share your ideas or questions under within the feedback!
Walt Disney World is having a gradual summer time. One other one. This doesn’t imply that the parks are useless or ghost cities. Calling the parks empty is an exaggeration. Nonetheless, attendance has decreased noticeably, wait occasions are down, ADR availability is ample, and the corporate continues to drag new levers to entice locals and followers again to the parks. We dig into the information and provide our theories for the summer time slowdown.
The one factor summer time hasn’t been, although, is peak season. Not for a very long time. Again on June 26, 2017 we first revealed: Summer season Is Not Peak Season at Walt Disney World. That defined how, regardless of the traditional knowledge that Memorial Day by way of Labor Day is the busiest stretch of the yr in Florida, summer time crowds weren’t as dangerous as up to now. It supplied a number of potential theories explaining the why of this.
Final yr, we adopted that up with Summer season (Nonetheless) Is NOT Excessive Crowds Season at Walt Disney World. In order for you a recap of 2016-2018, 2019, 2020, 2021-2022, and 2023-2024 (all listed individually as a result of they’ve their very own distinctive wrinkles), so the primary half of that publish. It explains the Star Wars Stoop, “Revenge Journey,” overly aggressive pricing, and extra. We’re revisiting the subject once more in 2025 as a result of this yr is as soon as once more its personal new ‘period’ and crowds have been even decrease to this point in Summer season 2025.
You may discover that the titles of those posts have ‘advanced’ over time. The primary was that summer time is just not peak season. The second was that it’s not excessive crowds season. This one is that summer time is the new decrease crowds season. None of that’s coincidental. This development began a few decade in the past, however contrasting crowd ranges from these summers with in the present day makes them look downright packed by comparability. (It is because general Walt Disney World attendance nonetheless doesn’t even strategy its peak 2018-2019 ranges.)
Actually, Summer season 2025 has been so gradual to this point that I used to be tempted to make use of the phrase “low season” within the title. Once I first began engaged on this, there was a robust case to be made that this summer time was proving to be the low season. The final week solid doubt on that, and even when it hadn’t, there’s additionally the fact that August and September can be slower than June and July. Can we actually have a 4-month low season stretch?
From my perspective, the reply is not any. Low season signifies the bottom of the low. Not solely that, but when summer time is the low season, the “shoulder season” earlier than it begins to lose that means. So as an alternative we’ll stick to cumbersome verbiage to explain what summer time has develop into. It’s positively not peak season, nevertheless it additionally isn’t low season (but). It’s someplace in between. A brand new elbow season, if you’ll.
Although June was the least-busy month of 2025, it’ll doubtless be surpassed by the subsequent 3 months. Not solely that, however loads of different busier (as a complete) months do have decrease lows; they’re simply accompanied by larger highs to stability out averages. June has a tighter vary to crowd ranges, with out a lot in the best way of spikes or sharp drops. Maybe we should always name summer time the “persistently uncomfortable season,” which is imprecise but 100% correct.
Earlier than we talk about the potential explanations for why summer time is (but once more) slower at Walt Disney World, let’s check out wait occasions. As all the time, all graphs and stats are courtesy of thrill-data.com.
June 2025 Crowds
June has been the slowest month of the yr to this point, with a mean wait time of 31 minutes and a crowd degree of two/10. As all the time, that’s an common, which nonetheless implies that hour-plus waits (and even 90+ minutes!) are doable for the headliners at peak occasions. They’re simply offset by 5-10 minute waits for decrease profile sights.
There have additionally been loads of days which have been busier than that common. June 2-3 had 36-37 minute waits for five/10 and 6/10 crowd ranges; June 23-24 had 35 minute averages for five/10 crowds. Against this, June 12-15 was the slowest stretch of the month, with wait occasions bottoming out at 22 minutes (1/10 crowds) and by no means exceeding half-hour (on common) for that stretch.
To the purpose about extra constant crowd ranges throughout summer time, it’s value declaring that at the same time as June ranks 6 (out of 6) for crowd ranges to this point in 2025, it nonetheless solely had two actually ‘useless’ days. Actually, should you zoom out additional, there wasn’t a single day in June that was among the many least busy 30 days within the final yr. There have been many dates from final August by way of December that beat June (though hurricane scares performed a task in September and October).
Not that it’s any shock at this level, however weekends are much less busy than weekdays. It is a development that’s a number of years operating, however is amplified throughout summer time and minimized as soon as Get together Season begins. As a complete, June 2025 was barely much less busy than Might, which was barely much less busy than April (one minute month-to-month decreases in each circumstances).
When you’re attempting to trend-spot or time a trip subsequent summer time, the final week of June was the busiest and the second week of the month (main as much as Father’s Day) was least busy. These are about as near patterns as we get for summer time journey, and you may most likely count on one thing comparable in June 2026. Apart from that, probably not a ton that’s value speaking about. Summer season is the least fascinating season for crowds because it tends to be essentially the most constant.
Earlier than we flip to potential explanations, let’s preemptively rule out something that falls aside when inspecting the heavy crowds over Easter, or the potential for year-over-year will increase throughout October, excessive crowds at Thanksgiving, Christmas, New 12 months’s, or in Winter 2026.
Principally, any principle that will be contradicted by larger crowds in the previous couple of months or the subsequent few months is off the desk (e.g. larger costs, fewer perks, Disney’s declining status). This will appear apparent, nevertheless it’s however obligatory as a result of discussing attendance has develop into a loaded challenge with many followers who wish to see their very own narratives bolstered. When you imagine that Disney is doomed or failing due to X or Y, that’s actually your prerogative, however X or Y as an evidence form of falls aside when crowds get loopy–and they’ll, later this yr.
With that out of the best way, let’s speak theories as to why summer time is slower now than it was again within the day…
Epic Universe
We would as properly begin with the elephant within the room: Epic Universe. That is the place we start not as a result of I imagine it’s the #1 rationalization for decrease crowds at Walt Disney World. However quite, as a result of that is the #1 rationale that many followers will proffer–particularly these desirous to see Disney “taken down a notch.”
My unpopular opinion is that Epic Universe has near no internet affect on summer time crowds at Walt Disney World. It does undoubtedly have some affect on the margins, and there are numerous anecdotes (we’ve heard ’em!) about followers skipping Walt Disney World for Common this yr. That’s unquestionably taking place. Nonetheless, new guests are additionally being drawn to Orlando resulting from Epic Universe and likewise visiting Walt Disney World because of this (the “rising tides lifts all ships” thesis).
It’s not even essential to get into all of these anecdotes and theories to find out which facet is “successful,” as a result of we now have information. As defined in our Epic Universe 2025 Crowd Calendar Predictions: Excessive Crowds Regardless of Low Attendance?!, Epic Universe ticket gross sales are low.
On a mean day this summer time, Epic Universe is greeting fewer company than Animal Kingdom. That’s not good. Whereas excessive wait occasions usually mirror excessive attendance, they’ll additionally mirror low capability. That’s the true story of Epic Universe to this point: excessive wait occasions resulting from low throughput masking low attendance (bought all that?!).
We are able to additionally look to attend occasions information for Common Orlando. The resort as a complete is about on par with final yr’s numbers, however should you have a look at solely Islands of Journey and Common Studios Florida (the 2 parks open final summer time), they’re down in Summer season 2025 versus final yr. So both Epic Universe is cannibalizing attendance at Walt Disney World and Common Orlando (however disproportionately the latter), or there are higher explanations as to why each operators proceed the downtrend. In our view, it’s the latter.
Worldwide Journey
In the course of the most up-to-date earnings name, Disney CFO Hugh Johnston was requested if the home parks have seen a success to worldwide visitation (causes mentioned in Canadians Are Canceling Walt Disney World Holidays).
By way of the attendance, Johnston indicated that worldwide attendance on the home parks nonetheless has not gotten again to pre-COVID ranges (this isn’t a brand new improvement), however it’s nonetheless within the double-digits. As for current worldwide visitation, Walt Disney World and Disneyland have “seen a little bit of an affect” of roughly 1% to 1.5% declines.
What Disney expects going ahead is one thing much like that, however the firm factors out that it’s “greater than making up for it with home attendance–attendance on the parks has been terrific.” Extra broadly talking, information reveals that demand from Canada has dropped sharply, and there are early indicators (surveys and statements from airways) suggesting an analogous dynamic from Europe.
Nonetheless, as we mentioned within the aforementioned article about Canada (and Disney’s personal information reinforces), worldwide vacationers will not be that vital of a demographic for Walt Disney World. If each single worldwide customer stayed house, it will be very noticeable–however that’s not even near what’s taking place. It’s a downtick of some share factors, at most.
It’s additionally unclear whether or not the worst of that is already within the rearview mirror. The Better Orlando Aviation Authority simply launched stats for Might 2025, they usually’re illuminating. Worldwide passenger visitors was up 9.3% for the month, whereas home passenger visitors was down 4.2% for a mixed lower of two.6%. The rolling 12-month complete stands at 56.5 million annual passengers.
Worldwide visitors now accounts for 14.6% of passengers at MCO, an all-time excessive, surpassing the earlier report from the summer time of 2019, with a mean of over 22,500 worldwide passengers per day. After all, MCO did add a brand new terminal, which has contributed to its record-setting run, however that was practically 3 years in the past at this level. Anybody who has handed by way of the legacy terminals within the final year-plus can let you know that MCO is insanely busy…just about on a regular basis!
Financial Uncertainty
Disney’s CFO indicated throughout final December’s earnings name that they should be “good about pricing,” particularly on the decrease finish of the market the place customers are “feeling stress.” (That is comparable sentiment to what quick meals chains and retailers have reported throughout their current earnings calls.)
Johnston stated that Disney has tried to carry costs regular for lower-priced choices on the parks and that many of the worth will increase have been concentrated amongst premium packages or throughout high-demand dates. He added that the corporate needs to “faucet in to these households and construct the behavior of coming to Disneyland or Disney World, not one time, however a number of occasions.”
All of this explains why Walt Disney World has gotten so aggressive with discounting this summer time. As we’ve reported at size elsewhere, you may get the most cost-effective Walt Disney World journey in July 2025 since no less than 2019. That’s form of loopy should you notice how a lot base costs have exploded post-COVID. It is a development we count on to proceed, with higher-occupancy winter months getting dearer and summer time additional reducing in 2026 and past.
On the identical time, we’ve repeatedly cited shopper confidence, financial anxiousness, ongoing inflation, People being squeezed from each route, and extra as the explanation why Walt Disney World might see decreased attendance sooner or later. And but, the primary factor we maintain listening to on company earnings calls is how “resilient” the American shopper is and the way “sturdy” spending stays.
It will appear that folks specific concern, anxiousness, and issues when surveyed about these things, however then behave in a different way. (Actually, survey information additionally bears this out, there’s a decoupling of perceptions in regards to the broader financial system versus their very own funds–and has been for a couple of years.) In different phrases, this can be a non-factor…for now?
Starlight Delays
Then there’s theoretical delayed journeys for Starlight Evening Parade and/or Take a look at Monitor opening, much like the pre-Star Wars Stoop of 2019. I discover this to be implausible at scale. We’ve seen nothing to point a significant variety of company postponed journeys within the lead-up to Guardians of the Galaxy: Cosmic Rewind or TRON Lightcycle Run, nor have been there noticeable spikes after these debuted.
They have been, basically, non-factors. That is truly an fascinating matter in and of itself (one in every of my theories is that the complexity of accessing new sights has given company chilly ft about planning round them), however past the scope of this publish.
Actually, I wouldn’t be shocked Walt Disney World noticed a much bigger bump this vacation season or in early 2026 resulting from Epic Universe (company “ready out the crowds” + “rising tides” thesis) than they’ll from any of their very own upcoming choices. And even then, I don’t suppose the (constructive) Epic impact can be all that significant.
Shifting Schedules
Again after we first tackled this matter in 2017, shifting schedules was supplied as one rationalization–extra colleges switching to year-round calendars with longer breaks all year long. I used to be considerably dismissive, as that was not a sudden prevalence that started in the previous couple of years. College calendars have been trending this manner for a decade or extra.
I’m rather more receptive to this rationalization now. Actually, I’d go so far as to say that that is the darkish horse candidate that most likely isn’t given sufficient credit score. Summer season is essentially the most handy time for many households to go to resulting from faculty breaks. That is the rationale for summer time being the height vacationer season within the first place. For many years, summer time has seen sustained crowds at nearly each vacationer vacation spot, for that very cause.
Nonetheless, we’d posit that this issues much less and fewer within the post-COVID local weather. After prolonged stretches out of college, households are much less “afraid” to drag their youngsters out of college for trip. Not all households and even most households, however simply sufficient to maneuver the needle. Anecdotally, we’ve heard from an increasing number of readers who do precisely this. We are able to’t again it up with exhausting stats, nevertheless it passes the odor check and appears extremely believable to us.
Equally as vital given the rise of the childless Disney Grownup as a core demographic for Walt Disney World is the hybrid work/play journeys. Though many People have confronted return to workplace mandates, distant work remains to be a viable possibility for a lot of, giving rise to a brand new era of digital nomads.
As individuals who did this lengthy earlier than it was normalized by COVID, we’ve noticed this in various locations we frequent. It was once the case that extra fascinating “low season” dates have been cheaper and fewer busy; however now, phrase has gotten out and numbers have leveled out. An illustrative instance of that is winter crowds at Walt Disney World, which proceed to extend comparatively. That’s additionally what makes this the perfect rationalization, in our view, because it reveals the redistribution of attendance in motion.
Excessive Warmth & Humidity
Summer season being unbearably sizzling and humid in Central Florida is just not a current improvement, so this needs to be a year-over-year non-factor. Nonetheless, the previous couple of summers have been particularly brutal and that has garnered headlines. The Orlando space has seen record-setting highs on a number of events, wirth temperatures persistently within the 90s, with “seems like” temperatures properly above 100º.
When you take Disney at its phrase, climate is the overriding issue in the summertime slowdown. It was such a sizzling matter that it drew an evidence from CEO Bob Iger, who attributed the slowness to an exhaustion of pent-up demand in Florida as a complete and unseasonably dangerous climate, even by summer time in Orlando requirements. On subsequent earnings calls, the CEO or CFO have talked about Florida climate on a couple of extra events.
It’s not simply Disney, both. In its quarterly and annual factors, OLC (the proprietor and operator of Tokyo Disney Resort) has repeatedly pointed to climate as the first cause for decrease attendance. On condition that OLC is extra clear about its numbers–and doesn’t have an enormous portfolio of parks to cloud the outcomes–this rationalization strikes us as extra believable. That is taking part in out once more in Summer season 2025, with the final two months being the slowest stretch at Tokyo Disneyland since final August.
In the case of climate, the large wild card now could be consciousness. The web continues to interrupt down boundaries, and what was once an abstraction within the textual content of assorted books and sources is made plainly seen and introduced in additional colourful methods. It’s one factor to examine excessive warmth in Birnbaum’s, it’s one other completely to see your favourite vlogger sweat their manner round World Showcase. The previous you could be extra prone to dismiss, questioning simply how dangerous it may very well be. The latter is rather more vivid–a tangible cautionary story.
Add to that the aforementioned willingness to drag youngsters out of college, and there’s a state of affairs the place households have elevated data decreased incentive to go to in the summertime. Others who’re reluctant or unable to skip faculty may merely be extra inclined to go to throughout breaks.
The motivation level extends to Annual Passholders and locals. Floridians keep house when the forecast turns unseasonably sizzling, humid or wet. A few of them may bear the climate if Disney provides them a cause to take action, as was once the case with summer time celebrations. That hasn’t been true for a couple of years, although. On prime of that, I might hazard a guess that Central Florida’s rising transplant inhabitants is just not suited to summer time climate, and stays within the cooling consolation of air-conditioning through the summer time months (disproportionate to native Floridians).
This comfort-seeking conduct additionally explains why seems like crowds or congestion is decrease through the summer time. Whereas within the winter company may wander round having fun with the environment of the parks, they search refuge indoors like heat-seeking missiles (besides in reverse). That truly might imply that wait occasions are elevated relative to attendance through the summer time months. Anecdotally, I can say with full certainty that the parks usually look useless from June by way of September even when the wait occasions don’t all the time mirror that.
Shorter Hours
I really feel like a damaged report about this, however again after we fell in love with summers at Walt Disney World, the hours have been longer. Though EPCOT and DAK are unchanged, Disney’s Hollywood Studios noticed later closings on Star Wars Weekends nights and Magic Kingdom was open till 11 pm or midnight each evening, with night Further Magic Hours till as late as 3 am.
With the ability to Park Hop to Magic Kingdom and keep as late as 3 am made the summer time warmth extra tolerable to plan round. We might begin early, take a noon break, after which return for ~6 hours after sundown. It made summers satisfying, and was a simple technique to mitigate the excessive warmth.
Fortunately, Starlight will deliver again these 11 pm closings, nevertheless it’s nonetheless perplexing that just one Walt Disney World theme park is presently open for an hour after sundown. There’s a cause why Prolonged Night Hours is a lot extra common through the summer time months, and Walt Disney World is aware of this. But, it looks like a vicious cycle for summer time park hours–with decrease crowds begetting shorter hours.
No Particular Occasions
Talking of particular occasions, one other issue is the dearth of particular occasions to prop up summer time numbers. That is considerably an outgrowth of climate, as a result of Walt Disney World merely can’t schedule runDisney races or out of doors ESPN Large World of Sports activities competitions in June or July. It’s doubtless that Disney Conferences and Fairytale Weddings sees an analogous summer time slowdown.
It’s as soon as once more Food plan EPCOT through the summer time, with that being telegraphed far prematurely for 2025. (Final yr, no less than there was the launch of CommuniCore Corridor.) To be honest, there’s GoofyCore Corridor and Cool Child Summer season because the summer time push, however that’s largely advertising and marketing. It’s not just like the summer time ‘spectaculars’ of previous, and I can’t think about that an considerable variety of guests booked for the substance of Cool Child Summer season. (The reductions are a special story.)
All of that is exactly why we anticipated a brand new pageant at EPCOT or a revival of Summer season Nightastic. Walt Disney World used to have blockbuster occasions that kicked off Memorial Day weekend, and made summer time an thrilling time to go to regardless of the climate. Possibly we’ll see a return to that in 2026, as even aggressive reductions haven’t moved the needle a lot.
Minimal Mitigation
I additionally really feel like a damaged report about this, however Imagineering has seemingly constructed all of its current expansions for the California local weather. Toy Story Land, Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge, World Celebration, and extra are completely depressing ~8 months of the yr. There’s little shade providing a technique to escape the warmth or summer time showers.
It’s actually mind-boggling that Walt Disney World has not solely accomplished nothing by way of mitigation measures, however they’ve as an alternative actively constructed issues for a extra Mediterranean local weather. The most well-liked and latest areas of the parks–the locations individuals spend a disproportionate period of time–being particularly disagreeable through the summer time has doubtless contributed to visitor perceptions that summers are much less comfy at Walt Disney World.
There are doubtless different variables I’m overlooking that would assist clarify why summer time attendance has been down. Different components could be at play, and in combination might have a noticeable affect, however I believe these variables could be one thing guests wouldn’t discover if it weren’t for the pricing, post-COVID schedule disruptions, and the climate.
In the end, it’s true that wait occasions have been below-average to this point in Summer season 2025. Not fairly low season ranges however not even rising to reasonable. It’s additionally true that this isn’t a current improvement. Summer season being slower was the new-normal for a couple of years pre-COVID closures, and that development has solely accelerated since. Judging by the wait occasions we’re presently seeing, not even Walt Disney World’s lowest costs since no less than 2019 might reverse the development. It’ll be fascinating to see which new levers they pull for 2026.
Earlier than you learn all of this and suppose that summer time immediately appears like a good time to go to, uh, don’t. When you beforehand dominated out a summer time trip to Walt Disney World, contemplate the chance that you simply did so for good cause. I’m not saying you’ll have a nasty time–as we frequently say, “a wet day at Walt Disney World is healthier than an ideal day at house.” That’s true as all the time.
What I’ll say is that no matter “beneficial properties” you’ll expertise throughout summer time at Walt Disney World by advantage of objectively decrease crowd ranges and wait occasions can be worn out by subjectively inferior every part else. When you pressured me to decide on between mid-June and mid-December, I might select the latter with out hesitation. I might take 5/10 crowds with nice climate and seasonal occasions over 1/10 crowds with depressing climate and nothing particular taking place. And it’s not even a remotely shut name. Judging by all the above, it will appear that I’m removed from alone on this sentiment.
Planning a Walt Disney World journey? Study lodges on our Walt Disney World Accommodations Opinions web page. For the place to eat, learn our Walt Disney World Restaurant Opinions. To economize on tickets or decide which kind to purchase, learn our Suggestions for Saving Cash on Walt Disney World Tickets publish. Our What to Pack for Disney Journeys publish takes a singular have a look at intelligent gadgets to take. For what to do and when to do it, our Walt Disney World Trip Guides will assist. For complete recommendation, the perfect place to start out is our Walt Disney World Journey Planning Information for every part it’s essential to know!
Your Ideas
Do you agree or disagree with our evaluation as to why summer time crowds at Walt Disney World have been below-average? Or, do you disagree completely, and suppose it’s been as busy–or busier–than regular? Any observations about attendance tendencies through the fall months that comply with this summer time dip? Listening to your suggestions about your experiences is each fascinating to us and useful to different readers, so please share your ideas or questions under within the feedback!
Walt Disney World is having a gradual summer time. One other one. This doesn’t imply that the parks are useless or ghost cities. Calling the parks empty is an exaggeration. Nonetheless, attendance has decreased noticeably, wait occasions are down, ADR availability is ample, and the corporate continues to drag new levers to entice locals and followers again to the parks. We dig into the information and provide our theories for the summer time slowdown.
The one factor summer time hasn’t been, although, is peak season. Not for a very long time. Again on June 26, 2017 we first revealed: Summer season Is Not Peak Season at Walt Disney World. That defined how, regardless of the traditional knowledge that Memorial Day by way of Labor Day is the busiest stretch of the yr in Florida, summer time crowds weren’t as dangerous as up to now. It supplied a number of potential theories explaining the why of this.
Final yr, we adopted that up with Summer season (Nonetheless) Is NOT Excessive Crowds Season at Walt Disney World. In order for you a recap of 2016-2018, 2019, 2020, 2021-2022, and 2023-2024 (all listed individually as a result of they’ve their very own distinctive wrinkles), so the primary half of that publish. It explains the Star Wars Stoop, “Revenge Journey,” overly aggressive pricing, and extra. We’re revisiting the subject once more in 2025 as a result of this yr is as soon as once more its personal new ‘period’ and crowds have been even decrease to this point in Summer season 2025.
You may discover that the titles of those posts have ‘advanced’ over time. The primary was that summer time is just not peak season. The second was that it’s not excessive crowds season. This one is that summer time is the new decrease crowds season. None of that’s coincidental. This development began a few decade in the past, however contrasting crowd ranges from these summers with in the present day makes them look downright packed by comparability. (It is because general Walt Disney World attendance nonetheless doesn’t even strategy its peak 2018-2019 ranges.)
Actually, Summer season 2025 has been so gradual to this point that I used to be tempted to make use of the phrase “low season” within the title. Once I first began engaged on this, there was a robust case to be made that this summer time was proving to be the low season. The final week solid doubt on that, and even when it hadn’t, there’s additionally the fact that August and September can be slower than June and July. Can we actually have a 4-month low season stretch?
From my perspective, the reply is not any. Low season signifies the bottom of the low. Not solely that, but when summer time is the low season, the “shoulder season” earlier than it begins to lose that means. So as an alternative we’ll stick to cumbersome verbiage to explain what summer time has develop into. It’s positively not peak season, nevertheless it additionally isn’t low season (but). It’s someplace in between. A brand new elbow season, if you’ll.
Although June was the least-busy month of 2025, it’ll doubtless be surpassed by the subsequent 3 months. Not solely that, however loads of different busier (as a complete) months do have decrease lows; they’re simply accompanied by larger highs to stability out averages. June has a tighter vary to crowd ranges, with out a lot in the best way of spikes or sharp drops. Maybe we should always name summer time the “persistently uncomfortable season,” which is imprecise but 100% correct.
Earlier than we talk about the potential explanations for why summer time is (but once more) slower at Walt Disney World, let’s check out wait occasions. As all the time, all graphs and stats are courtesy of thrill-data.com.
June 2025 Crowds
June has been the slowest month of the yr to this point, with a mean wait time of 31 minutes and a crowd degree of two/10. As all the time, that’s an common, which nonetheless implies that hour-plus waits (and even 90+ minutes!) are doable for the headliners at peak occasions. They’re simply offset by 5-10 minute waits for decrease profile sights.
There have additionally been loads of days which have been busier than that common. June 2-3 had 36-37 minute waits for five/10 and 6/10 crowd ranges; June 23-24 had 35 minute averages for five/10 crowds. Against this, June 12-15 was the slowest stretch of the month, with wait occasions bottoming out at 22 minutes (1/10 crowds) and by no means exceeding half-hour (on common) for that stretch.
To the purpose about extra constant crowd ranges throughout summer time, it’s value declaring that at the same time as June ranks 6 (out of 6) for crowd ranges to this point in 2025, it nonetheless solely had two actually ‘useless’ days. Actually, should you zoom out additional, there wasn’t a single day in June that was among the many least busy 30 days within the final yr. There have been many dates from final August by way of December that beat June (though hurricane scares performed a task in September and October).
Not that it’s any shock at this level, however weekends are much less busy than weekdays. It is a development that’s a number of years operating, however is amplified throughout summer time and minimized as soon as Get together Season begins. As a complete, June 2025 was barely much less busy than Might, which was barely much less busy than April (one minute month-to-month decreases in each circumstances).
When you’re attempting to trend-spot or time a trip subsequent summer time, the final week of June was the busiest and the second week of the month (main as much as Father’s Day) was least busy. These are about as near patterns as we get for summer time journey, and you may most likely count on one thing comparable in June 2026. Apart from that, probably not a ton that’s value speaking about. Summer season is the least fascinating season for crowds because it tends to be essentially the most constant.
Earlier than we flip to potential explanations, let’s preemptively rule out something that falls aside when inspecting the heavy crowds over Easter, or the potential for year-over-year will increase throughout October, excessive crowds at Thanksgiving, Christmas, New 12 months’s, or in Winter 2026.
Principally, any principle that will be contradicted by larger crowds in the previous couple of months or the subsequent few months is off the desk (e.g. larger costs, fewer perks, Disney’s declining status). This will appear apparent, nevertheless it’s however obligatory as a result of discussing attendance has develop into a loaded challenge with many followers who wish to see their very own narratives bolstered. When you imagine that Disney is doomed or failing due to X or Y, that’s actually your prerogative, however X or Y as an evidence form of falls aside when crowds get loopy–and they’ll, later this yr.
With that out of the best way, let’s speak theories as to why summer time is slower now than it was again within the day…
Epic Universe
We would as properly begin with the elephant within the room: Epic Universe. That is the place we start not as a result of I imagine it’s the #1 rationalization for decrease crowds at Walt Disney World. However quite, as a result of that is the #1 rationale that many followers will proffer–particularly these desirous to see Disney “taken down a notch.”
My unpopular opinion is that Epic Universe has near no internet affect on summer time crowds at Walt Disney World. It does undoubtedly have some affect on the margins, and there are numerous anecdotes (we’ve heard ’em!) about followers skipping Walt Disney World for Common this yr. That’s unquestionably taking place. Nonetheless, new guests are additionally being drawn to Orlando resulting from Epic Universe and likewise visiting Walt Disney World because of this (the “rising tides lifts all ships” thesis).
It’s not even essential to get into all of these anecdotes and theories to find out which facet is “successful,” as a result of we now have information. As defined in our Epic Universe 2025 Crowd Calendar Predictions: Excessive Crowds Regardless of Low Attendance?!, Epic Universe ticket gross sales are low.
On a mean day this summer time, Epic Universe is greeting fewer company than Animal Kingdom. That’s not good. Whereas excessive wait occasions usually mirror excessive attendance, they’ll additionally mirror low capability. That’s the true story of Epic Universe to this point: excessive wait occasions resulting from low throughput masking low attendance (bought all that?!).
We are able to additionally look to attend occasions information for Common Orlando. The resort as a complete is about on par with final yr’s numbers, however should you have a look at solely Islands of Journey and Common Studios Florida (the 2 parks open final summer time), they’re down in Summer season 2025 versus final yr. So both Epic Universe is cannibalizing attendance at Walt Disney World and Common Orlando (however disproportionately the latter), or there are higher explanations as to why each operators proceed the downtrend. In our view, it’s the latter.
Worldwide Journey
In the course of the most up-to-date earnings name, Disney CFO Hugh Johnston was requested if the home parks have seen a success to worldwide visitation (causes mentioned in Canadians Are Canceling Walt Disney World Holidays).
By way of the attendance, Johnston indicated that worldwide attendance on the home parks nonetheless has not gotten again to pre-COVID ranges (this isn’t a brand new improvement), however it’s nonetheless within the double-digits. As for current worldwide visitation, Walt Disney World and Disneyland have “seen a little bit of an affect” of roughly 1% to 1.5% declines.
What Disney expects going ahead is one thing much like that, however the firm factors out that it’s “greater than making up for it with home attendance–attendance on the parks has been terrific.” Extra broadly talking, information reveals that demand from Canada has dropped sharply, and there are early indicators (surveys and statements from airways) suggesting an analogous dynamic from Europe.
Nonetheless, as we mentioned within the aforementioned article about Canada (and Disney’s personal information reinforces), worldwide vacationers will not be that vital of a demographic for Walt Disney World. If each single worldwide customer stayed house, it will be very noticeable–however that’s not even near what’s taking place. It’s a downtick of some share factors, at most.
It’s additionally unclear whether or not the worst of that is already within the rearview mirror. The Better Orlando Aviation Authority simply launched stats for Might 2025, they usually’re illuminating. Worldwide passenger visitors was up 9.3% for the month, whereas home passenger visitors was down 4.2% for a mixed lower of two.6%. The rolling 12-month complete stands at 56.5 million annual passengers.
Worldwide visitors now accounts for 14.6% of passengers at MCO, an all-time excessive, surpassing the earlier report from the summer time of 2019, with a mean of over 22,500 worldwide passengers per day. After all, MCO did add a brand new terminal, which has contributed to its record-setting run, however that was practically 3 years in the past at this level. Anybody who has handed by way of the legacy terminals within the final year-plus can let you know that MCO is insanely busy…just about on a regular basis!
Financial Uncertainty
Disney’s CFO indicated throughout final December’s earnings name that they should be “good about pricing,” particularly on the decrease finish of the market the place customers are “feeling stress.” (That is comparable sentiment to what quick meals chains and retailers have reported throughout their current earnings calls.)
Johnston stated that Disney has tried to carry costs regular for lower-priced choices on the parks and that many of the worth will increase have been concentrated amongst premium packages or throughout high-demand dates. He added that the corporate needs to “faucet in to these households and construct the behavior of coming to Disneyland or Disney World, not one time, however a number of occasions.”
All of this explains why Walt Disney World has gotten so aggressive with discounting this summer time. As we’ve reported at size elsewhere, you may get the most cost-effective Walt Disney World journey in July 2025 since no less than 2019. That’s form of loopy should you notice how a lot base costs have exploded post-COVID. It is a development we count on to proceed, with higher-occupancy winter months getting dearer and summer time additional reducing in 2026 and past.
On the identical time, we’ve repeatedly cited shopper confidence, financial anxiousness, ongoing inflation, People being squeezed from each route, and extra as the explanation why Walt Disney World might see decreased attendance sooner or later. And but, the primary factor we maintain listening to on company earnings calls is how “resilient” the American shopper is and the way “sturdy” spending stays.
It will appear that folks specific concern, anxiousness, and issues when surveyed about these things, however then behave in a different way. (Actually, survey information additionally bears this out, there’s a decoupling of perceptions in regards to the broader financial system versus their very own funds–and has been for a couple of years.) In different phrases, this can be a non-factor…for now?
Starlight Delays
Then there’s theoretical delayed journeys for Starlight Evening Parade and/or Take a look at Monitor opening, much like the pre-Star Wars Stoop of 2019. I discover this to be implausible at scale. We’ve seen nothing to point a significant variety of company postponed journeys within the lead-up to Guardians of the Galaxy: Cosmic Rewind or TRON Lightcycle Run, nor have been there noticeable spikes after these debuted.
They have been, basically, non-factors. That is truly an fascinating matter in and of itself (one in every of my theories is that the complexity of accessing new sights has given company chilly ft about planning round them), however past the scope of this publish.
Actually, I wouldn’t be shocked Walt Disney World noticed a much bigger bump this vacation season or in early 2026 resulting from Epic Universe (company “ready out the crowds” + “rising tides” thesis) than they’ll from any of their very own upcoming choices. And even then, I don’t suppose the (constructive) Epic impact can be all that significant.
Shifting Schedules
Again after we first tackled this matter in 2017, shifting schedules was supplied as one rationalization–extra colleges switching to year-round calendars with longer breaks all year long. I used to be considerably dismissive, as that was not a sudden prevalence that started in the previous couple of years. College calendars have been trending this manner for a decade or extra.
I’m rather more receptive to this rationalization now. Actually, I’d go so far as to say that that is the darkish horse candidate that most likely isn’t given sufficient credit score. Summer season is essentially the most handy time for many households to go to resulting from faculty breaks. That is the rationale for summer time being the height vacationer season within the first place. For many years, summer time has seen sustained crowds at nearly each vacationer vacation spot, for that very cause.
Nonetheless, we’d posit that this issues much less and fewer within the post-COVID local weather. After prolonged stretches out of college, households are much less “afraid” to drag their youngsters out of college for trip. Not all households and even most households, however simply sufficient to maneuver the needle. Anecdotally, we’ve heard from an increasing number of readers who do precisely this. We are able to’t again it up with exhausting stats, nevertheless it passes the odor check and appears extremely believable to us.
Equally as vital given the rise of the childless Disney Grownup as a core demographic for Walt Disney World is the hybrid work/play journeys. Though many People have confronted return to workplace mandates, distant work remains to be a viable possibility for a lot of, giving rise to a brand new era of digital nomads.
As individuals who did this lengthy earlier than it was normalized by COVID, we’ve noticed this in various locations we frequent. It was once the case that extra fascinating “low season” dates have been cheaper and fewer busy; however now, phrase has gotten out and numbers have leveled out. An illustrative instance of that is winter crowds at Walt Disney World, which proceed to extend comparatively. That’s additionally what makes this the perfect rationalization, in our view, because it reveals the redistribution of attendance in motion.
Excessive Warmth & Humidity
Summer season being unbearably sizzling and humid in Central Florida is just not a current improvement, so this needs to be a year-over-year non-factor. Nonetheless, the previous couple of summers have been particularly brutal and that has garnered headlines. The Orlando space has seen record-setting highs on a number of events, wirth temperatures persistently within the 90s, with “seems like” temperatures properly above 100º.
When you take Disney at its phrase, climate is the overriding issue in the summertime slowdown. It was such a sizzling matter that it drew an evidence from CEO Bob Iger, who attributed the slowness to an exhaustion of pent-up demand in Florida as a complete and unseasonably dangerous climate, even by summer time in Orlando requirements. On subsequent earnings calls, the CEO or CFO have talked about Florida climate on a couple of extra events.
It’s not simply Disney, both. In its quarterly and annual factors, OLC (the proprietor and operator of Tokyo Disney Resort) has repeatedly pointed to climate as the first cause for decrease attendance. On condition that OLC is extra clear about its numbers–and doesn’t have an enormous portfolio of parks to cloud the outcomes–this rationalization strikes us as extra believable. That is taking part in out once more in Summer season 2025, with the final two months being the slowest stretch at Tokyo Disneyland since final August.
In the case of climate, the large wild card now could be consciousness. The web continues to interrupt down boundaries, and what was once an abstraction within the textual content of assorted books and sources is made plainly seen and introduced in additional colourful methods. It’s one factor to examine excessive warmth in Birnbaum’s, it’s one other completely to see your favourite vlogger sweat their manner round World Showcase. The previous you could be extra prone to dismiss, questioning simply how dangerous it may very well be. The latter is rather more vivid–a tangible cautionary story.
Add to that the aforementioned willingness to drag youngsters out of college, and there’s a state of affairs the place households have elevated data decreased incentive to go to in the summertime. Others who’re reluctant or unable to skip faculty may merely be extra inclined to go to throughout breaks.
The motivation level extends to Annual Passholders and locals. Floridians keep house when the forecast turns unseasonably sizzling, humid or wet. A few of them may bear the climate if Disney provides them a cause to take action, as was once the case with summer time celebrations. That hasn’t been true for a couple of years, although. On prime of that, I might hazard a guess that Central Florida’s rising transplant inhabitants is just not suited to summer time climate, and stays within the cooling consolation of air-conditioning through the summer time months (disproportionate to native Floridians).
This comfort-seeking conduct additionally explains why seems like crowds or congestion is decrease through the summer time. Whereas within the winter company may wander round having fun with the environment of the parks, they search refuge indoors like heat-seeking missiles (besides in reverse). That truly might imply that wait occasions are elevated relative to attendance through the summer time months. Anecdotally, I can say with full certainty that the parks usually look useless from June by way of September even when the wait occasions don’t all the time mirror that.
Shorter Hours
I really feel like a damaged report about this, however again after we fell in love with summers at Walt Disney World, the hours have been longer. Though EPCOT and DAK are unchanged, Disney’s Hollywood Studios noticed later closings on Star Wars Weekends nights and Magic Kingdom was open till 11 pm or midnight each evening, with night Further Magic Hours till as late as 3 am.
With the ability to Park Hop to Magic Kingdom and keep as late as 3 am made the summer time warmth extra tolerable to plan round. We might begin early, take a noon break, after which return for ~6 hours after sundown. It made summers satisfying, and was a simple technique to mitigate the excessive warmth.
Fortunately, Starlight will deliver again these 11 pm closings, nevertheless it’s nonetheless perplexing that just one Walt Disney World theme park is presently open for an hour after sundown. There’s a cause why Prolonged Night Hours is a lot extra common through the summer time months, and Walt Disney World is aware of this. But, it looks like a vicious cycle for summer time park hours–with decrease crowds begetting shorter hours.
No Particular Occasions
Talking of particular occasions, one other issue is the dearth of particular occasions to prop up summer time numbers. That is considerably an outgrowth of climate, as a result of Walt Disney World merely can’t schedule runDisney races or out of doors ESPN Large World of Sports activities competitions in June or July. It’s doubtless that Disney Conferences and Fairytale Weddings sees an analogous summer time slowdown.
It’s as soon as once more Food plan EPCOT through the summer time, with that being telegraphed far prematurely for 2025. (Final yr, no less than there was the launch of CommuniCore Corridor.) To be honest, there’s GoofyCore Corridor and Cool Child Summer season because the summer time push, however that’s largely advertising and marketing. It’s not just like the summer time ‘spectaculars’ of previous, and I can’t think about that an considerable variety of guests booked for the substance of Cool Child Summer season. (The reductions are a special story.)
All of that is exactly why we anticipated a brand new pageant at EPCOT or a revival of Summer season Nightastic. Walt Disney World used to have blockbuster occasions that kicked off Memorial Day weekend, and made summer time an thrilling time to go to regardless of the climate. Possibly we’ll see a return to that in 2026, as even aggressive reductions haven’t moved the needle a lot.
Minimal Mitigation
I additionally really feel like a damaged report about this, however Imagineering has seemingly constructed all of its current expansions for the California local weather. Toy Story Land, Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge, World Celebration, and extra are completely depressing ~8 months of the yr. There’s little shade providing a technique to escape the warmth or summer time showers.
It’s actually mind-boggling that Walt Disney World has not solely accomplished nothing by way of mitigation measures, however they’ve as an alternative actively constructed issues for a extra Mediterranean local weather. The most well-liked and latest areas of the parks–the locations individuals spend a disproportionate period of time–being particularly disagreeable through the summer time has doubtless contributed to visitor perceptions that summers are much less comfy at Walt Disney World.
There are doubtless different variables I’m overlooking that would assist clarify why summer time attendance has been down. Different components could be at play, and in combination might have a noticeable affect, however I believe these variables could be one thing guests wouldn’t discover if it weren’t for the pricing, post-COVID schedule disruptions, and the climate.
In the end, it’s true that wait occasions have been below-average to this point in Summer season 2025. Not fairly low season ranges however not even rising to reasonable. It’s additionally true that this isn’t a current improvement. Summer season being slower was the new-normal for a couple of years pre-COVID closures, and that development has solely accelerated since. Judging by the wait occasions we’re presently seeing, not even Walt Disney World’s lowest costs since no less than 2019 might reverse the development. It’ll be fascinating to see which new levers they pull for 2026.
Earlier than you learn all of this and suppose that summer time immediately appears like a good time to go to, uh, don’t. When you beforehand dominated out a summer time trip to Walt Disney World, contemplate the chance that you simply did so for good cause. I’m not saying you’ll have a nasty time–as we frequently say, “a wet day at Walt Disney World is healthier than an ideal day at house.” That’s true as all the time.
What I’ll say is that no matter “beneficial properties” you’ll expertise throughout summer time at Walt Disney World by advantage of objectively decrease crowd ranges and wait occasions can be worn out by subjectively inferior every part else. When you pressured me to decide on between mid-June and mid-December, I might select the latter with out hesitation. I might take 5/10 crowds with nice climate and seasonal occasions over 1/10 crowds with depressing climate and nothing particular taking place. And it’s not even a remotely shut name. Judging by all the above, it will appear that I’m removed from alone on this sentiment.
Planning a Walt Disney World journey? Study lodges on our Walt Disney World Accommodations Opinions web page. For the place to eat, learn our Walt Disney World Restaurant Opinions. To economize on tickets or decide which kind to purchase, learn our Suggestions for Saving Cash on Walt Disney World Tickets publish. Our What to Pack for Disney Journeys publish takes a singular have a look at intelligent gadgets to take. For what to do and when to do it, our Walt Disney World Trip Guides will assist. For complete recommendation, the perfect place to start out is our Walt Disney World Journey Planning Information for every part it’s essential to know!
Your Ideas
Do you agree or disagree with our evaluation as to why summer time crowds at Walt Disney World have been below-average? Or, do you disagree completely, and suppose it’s been as busy–or busier–than regular? Any observations about attendance tendencies through the fall months that comply with this summer time dip? Listening to your suggestions about your experiences is each fascinating to us and useful to different readers, so please share your ideas or questions under within the feedback!
Walt Disney World is having a gradual summer time. One other one. This doesn’t imply that the parks are useless or ghost cities. Calling the parks empty is an exaggeration. Nonetheless, attendance has decreased noticeably, wait occasions are down, ADR availability is ample, and the corporate continues to drag new levers to entice locals and followers again to the parks. We dig into the information and provide our theories for the summer time slowdown.
The one factor summer time hasn’t been, although, is peak season. Not for a very long time. Again on June 26, 2017 we first revealed: Summer season Is Not Peak Season at Walt Disney World. That defined how, regardless of the traditional knowledge that Memorial Day by way of Labor Day is the busiest stretch of the yr in Florida, summer time crowds weren’t as dangerous as up to now. It supplied a number of potential theories explaining the why of this.
Final yr, we adopted that up with Summer season (Nonetheless) Is NOT Excessive Crowds Season at Walt Disney World. In order for you a recap of 2016-2018, 2019, 2020, 2021-2022, and 2023-2024 (all listed individually as a result of they’ve their very own distinctive wrinkles), so the primary half of that publish. It explains the Star Wars Stoop, “Revenge Journey,” overly aggressive pricing, and extra. We’re revisiting the subject once more in 2025 as a result of this yr is as soon as once more its personal new ‘period’ and crowds have been even decrease to this point in Summer season 2025.
You may discover that the titles of those posts have ‘advanced’ over time. The primary was that summer time is just not peak season. The second was that it’s not excessive crowds season. This one is that summer time is the new decrease crowds season. None of that’s coincidental. This development began a few decade in the past, however contrasting crowd ranges from these summers with in the present day makes them look downright packed by comparability. (It is because general Walt Disney World attendance nonetheless doesn’t even strategy its peak 2018-2019 ranges.)
Actually, Summer season 2025 has been so gradual to this point that I used to be tempted to make use of the phrase “low season” within the title. Once I first began engaged on this, there was a robust case to be made that this summer time was proving to be the low season. The final week solid doubt on that, and even when it hadn’t, there’s additionally the fact that August and September can be slower than June and July. Can we actually have a 4-month low season stretch?
From my perspective, the reply is not any. Low season signifies the bottom of the low. Not solely that, but when summer time is the low season, the “shoulder season” earlier than it begins to lose that means. So as an alternative we’ll stick to cumbersome verbiage to explain what summer time has develop into. It’s positively not peak season, nevertheless it additionally isn’t low season (but). It’s someplace in between. A brand new elbow season, if you’ll.
Although June was the least-busy month of 2025, it’ll doubtless be surpassed by the subsequent 3 months. Not solely that, however loads of different busier (as a complete) months do have decrease lows; they’re simply accompanied by larger highs to stability out averages. June has a tighter vary to crowd ranges, with out a lot in the best way of spikes or sharp drops. Maybe we should always name summer time the “persistently uncomfortable season,” which is imprecise but 100% correct.
Earlier than we talk about the potential explanations for why summer time is (but once more) slower at Walt Disney World, let’s check out wait occasions. As all the time, all graphs and stats are courtesy of thrill-data.com.
June 2025 Crowds
June has been the slowest month of the yr to this point, with a mean wait time of 31 minutes and a crowd degree of two/10. As all the time, that’s an common, which nonetheless implies that hour-plus waits (and even 90+ minutes!) are doable for the headliners at peak occasions. They’re simply offset by 5-10 minute waits for decrease profile sights.
There have additionally been loads of days which have been busier than that common. June 2-3 had 36-37 minute waits for five/10 and 6/10 crowd ranges; June 23-24 had 35 minute averages for five/10 crowds. Against this, June 12-15 was the slowest stretch of the month, with wait occasions bottoming out at 22 minutes (1/10 crowds) and by no means exceeding half-hour (on common) for that stretch.
To the purpose about extra constant crowd ranges throughout summer time, it’s value declaring that at the same time as June ranks 6 (out of 6) for crowd ranges to this point in 2025, it nonetheless solely had two actually ‘useless’ days. Actually, should you zoom out additional, there wasn’t a single day in June that was among the many least busy 30 days within the final yr. There have been many dates from final August by way of December that beat June (though hurricane scares performed a task in September and October).
Not that it’s any shock at this level, however weekends are much less busy than weekdays. It is a development that’s a number of years operating, however is amplified throughout summer time and minimized as soon as Get together Season begins. As a complete, June 2025 was barely much less busy than Might, which was barely much less busy than April (one minute month-to-month decreases in each circumstances).
When you’re attempting to trend-spot or time a trip subsequent summer time, the final week of June was the busiest and the second week of the month (main as much as Father’s Day) was least busy. These are about as near patterns as we get for summer time journey, and you may most likely count on one thing comparable in June 2026. Apart from that, probably not a ton that’s value speaking about. Summer season is the least fascinating season for crowds because it tends to be essentially the most constant.
Earlier than we flip to potential explanations, let’s preemptively rule out something that falls aside when inspecting the heavy crowds over Easter, or the potential for year-over-year will increase throughout October, excessive crowds at Thanksgiving, Christmas, New 12 months’s, or in Winter 2026.
Principally, any principle that will be contradicted by larger crowds in the previous couple of months or the subsequent few months is off the desk (e.g. larger costs, fewer perks, Disney’s declining status). This will appear apparent, nevertheless it’s however obligatory as a result of discussing attendance has develop into a loaded challenge with many followers who wish to see their very own narratives bolstered. When you imagine that Disney is doomed or failing due to X or Y, that’s actually your prerogative, however X or Y as an evidence form of falls aside when crowds get loopy–and they’ll, later this yr.
With that out of the best way, let’s speak theories as to why summer time is slower now than it was again within the day…
Epic Universe
We would as properly begin with the elephant within the room: Epic Universe. That is the place we start not as a result of I imagine it’s the #1 rationalization for decrease crowds at Walt Disney World. However quite, as a result of that is the #1 rationale that many followers will proffer–particularly these desirous to see Disney “taken down a notch.”
My unpopular opinion is that Epic Universe has near no internet affect on summer time crowds at Walt Disney World. It does undoubtedly have some affect on the margins, and there are numerous anecdotes (we’ve heard ’em!) about followers skipping Walt Disney World for Common this yr. That’s unquestionably taking place. Nonetheless, new guests are additionally being drawn to Orlando resulting from Epic Universe and likewise visiting Walt Disney World because of this (the “rising tides lifts all ships” thesis).
It’s not even essential to get into all of these anecdotes and theories to find out which facet is “successful,” as a result of we now have information. As defined in our Epic Universe 2025 Crowd Calendar Predictions: Excessive Crowds Regardless of Low Attendance?!, Epic Universe ticket gross sales are low.
On a mean day this summer time, Epic Universe is greeting fewer company than Animal Kingdom. That’s not good. Whereas excessive wait occasions usually mirror excessive attendance, they’ll additionally mirror low capability. That’s the true story of Epic Universe to this point: excessive wait occasions resulting from low throughput masking low attendance (bought all that?!).
We are able to additionally look to attend occasions information for Common Orlando. The resort as a complete is about on par with final yr’s numbers, however should you have a look at solely Islands of Journey and Common Studios Florida (the 2 parks open final summer time), they’re down in Summer season 2025 versus final yr. So both Epic Universe is cannibalizing attendance at Walt Disney World and Common Orlando (however disproportionately the latter), or there are higher explanations as to why each operators proceed the downtrend. In our view, it’s the latter.
Worldwide Journey
In the course of the most up-to-date earnings name, Disney CFO Hugh Johnston was requested if the home parks have seen a success to worldwide visitation (causes mentioned in Canadians Are Canceling Walt Disney World Holidays).
By way of the attendance, Johnston indicated that worldwide attendance on the home parks nonetheless has not gotten again to pre-COVID ranges (this isn’t a brand new improvement), however it’s nonetheless within the double-digits. As for current worldwide visitation, Walt Disney World and Disneyland have “seen a little bit of an affect” of roughly 1% to 1.5% declines.
What Disney expects going ahead is one thing much like that, however the firm factors out that it’s “greater than making up for it with home attendance–attendance on the parks has been terrific.” Extra broadly talking, information reveals that demand from Canada has dropped sharply, and there are early indicators (surveys and statements from airways) suggesting an analogous dynamic from Europe.
Nonetheless, as we mentioned within the aforementioned article about Canada (and Disney’s personal information reinforces), worldwide vacationers will not be that vital of a demographic for Walt Disney World. If each single worldwide customer stayed house, it will be very noticeable–however that’s not even near what’s taking place. It’s a downtick of some share factors, at most.
It’s additionally unclear whether or not the worst of that is already within the rearview mirror. The Better Orlando Aviation Authority simply launched stats for Might 2025, they usually’re illuminating. Worldwide passenger visitors was up 9.3% for the month, whereas home passenger visitors was down 4.2% for a mixed lower of two.6%. The rolling 12-month complete stands at 56.5 million annual passengers.
Worldwide visitors now accounts for 14.6% of passengers at MCO, an all-time excessive, surpassing the earlier report from the summer time of 2019, with a mean of over 22,500 worldwide passengers per day. After all, MCO did add a brand new terminal, which has contributed to its record-setting run, however that was practically 3 years in the past at this level. Anybody who has handed by way of the legacy terminals within the final year-plus can let you know that MCO is insanely busy…just about on a regular basis!
Financial Uncertainty
Disney’s CFO indicated throughout final December’s earnings name that they should be “good about pricing,” particularly on the decrease finish of the market the place customers are “feeling stress.” (That is comparable sentiment to what quick meals chains and retailers have reported throughout their current earnings calls.)
Johnston stated that Disney has tried to carry costs regular for lower-priced choices on the parks and that many of the worth will increase have been concentrated amongst premium packages or throughout high-demand dates. He added that the corporate needs to “faucet in to these households and construct the behavior of coming to Disneyland or Disney World, not one time, however a number of occasions.”
All of this explains why Walt Disney World has gotten so aggressive with discounting this summer time. As we’ve reported at size elsewhere, you may get the most cost-effective Walt Disney World journey in July 2025 since no less than 2019. That’s form of loopy should you notice how a lot base costs have exploded post-COVID. It is a development we count on to proceed, with higher-occupancy winter months getting dearer and summer time additional reducing in 2026 and past.
On the identical time, we’ve repeatedly cited shopper confidence, financial anxiousness, ongoing inflation, People being squeezed from each route, and extra as the explanation why Walt Disney World might see decreased attendance sooner or later. And but, the primary factor we maintain listening to on company earnings calls is how “resilient” the American shopper is and the way “sturdy” spending stays.
It will appear that folks specific concern, anxiousness, and issues when surveyed about these things, however then behave in a different way. (Actually, survey information additionally bears this out, there’s a decoupling of perceptions in regards to the broader financial system versus their very own funds–and has been for a couple of years.) In different phrases, this can be a non-factor…for now?
Starlight Delays
Then there’s theoretical delayed journeys for Starlight Evening Parade and/or Take a look at Monitor opening, much like the pre-Star Wars Stoop of 2019. I discover this to be implausible at scale. We’ve seen nothing to point a significant variety of company postponed journeys within the lead-up to Guardians of the Galaxy: Cosmic Rewind or TRON Lightcycle Run, nor have been there noticeable spikes after these debuted.
They have been, basically, non-factors. That is truly an fascinating matter in and of itself (one in every of my theories is that the complexity of accessing new sights has given company chilly ft about planning round them), however past the scope of this publish.
Actually, I wouldn’t be shocked Walt Disney World noticed a much bigger bump this vacation season or in early 2026 resulting from Epic Universe (company “ready out the crowds” + “rising tides” thesis) than they’ll from any of their very own upcoming choices. And even then, I don’t suppose the (constructive) Epic impact can be all that significant.
Shifting Schedules
Again after we first tackled this matter in 2017, shifting schedules was supplied as one rationalization–extra colleges switching to year-round calendars with longer breaks all year long. I used to be considerably dismissive, as that was not a sudden prevalence that started in the previous couple of years. College calendars have been trending this manner for a decade or extra.
I’m rather more receptive to this rationalization now. Actually, I’d go so far as to say that that is the darkish horse candidate that most likely isn’t given sufficient credit score. Summer season is essentially the most handy time for many households to go to resulting from faculty breaks. That is the rationale for summer time being the height vacationer season within the first place. For many years, summer time has seen sustained crowds at nearly each vacationer vacation spot, for that very cause.
Nonetheless, we’d posit that this issues much less and fewer within the post-COVID local weather. After prolonged stretches out of college, households are much less “afraid” to drag their youngsters out of college for trip. Not all households and even most households, however simply sufficient to maneuver the needle. Anecdotally, we’ve heard from an increasing number of readers who do precisely this. We are able to’t again it up with exhausting stats, nevertheless it passes the odor check and appears extremely believable to us.
Equally as vital given the rise of the childless Disney Grownup as a core demographic for Walt Disney World is the hybrid work/play journeys. Though many People have confronted return to workplace mandates, distant work remains to be a viable possibility for a lot of, giving rise to a brand new era of digital nomads.
As individuals who did this lengthy earlier than it was normalized by COVID, we’ve noticed this in various locations we frequent. It was once the case that extra fascinating “low season” dates have been cheaper and fewer busy; however now, phrase has gotten out and numbers have leveled out. An illustrative instance of that is winter crowds at Walt Disney World, which proceed to extend comparatively. That’s additionally what makes this the perfect rationalization, in our view, because it reveals the redistribution of attendance in motion.
Excessive Warmth & Humidity
Summer season being unbearably sizzling and humid in Central Florida is just not a current improvement, so this needs to be a year-over-year non-factor. Nonetheless, the previous couple of summers have been particularly brutal and that has garnered headlines. The Orlando space has seen record-setting highs on a number of events, wirth temperatures persistently within the 90s, with “seems like” temperatures properly above 100º.
When you take Disney at its phrase, climate is the overriding issue in the summertime slowdown. It was such a sizzling matter that it drew an evidence from CEO Bob Iger, who attributed the slowness to an exhaustion of pent-up demand in Florida as a complete and unseasonably dangerous climate, even by summer time in Orlando requirements. On subsequent earnings calls, the CEO or CFO have talked about Florida climate on a couple of extra events.
It’s not simply Disney, both. In its quarterly and annual factors, OLC (the proprietor and operator of Tokyo Disney Resort) has repeatedly pointed to climate as the first cause for decrease attendance. On condition that OLC is extra clear about its numbers–and doesn’t have an enormous portfolio of parks to cloud the outcomes–this rationalization strikes us as extra believable. That is taking part in out once more in Summer season 2025, with the final two months being the slowest stretch at Tokyo Disneyland since final August.
In the case of climate, the large wild card now could be consciousness. The web continues to interrupt down boundaries, and what was once an abstraction within the textual content of assorted books and sources is made plainly seen and introduced in additional colourful methods. It’s one factor to examine excessive warmth in Birnbaum’s, it’s one other completely to see your favourite vlogger sweat their manner round World Showcase. The previous you could be extra prone to dismiss, questioning simply how dangerous it may very well be. The latter is rather more vivid–a tangible cautionary story.
Add to that the aforementioned willingness to drag youngsters out of college, and there’s a state of affairs the place households have elevated data decreased incentive to go to in the summertime. Others who’re reluctant or unable to skip faculty may merely be extra inclined to go to throughout breaks.
The motivation level extends to Annual Passholders and locals. Floridians keep house when the forecast turns unseasonably sizzling, humid or wet. A few of them may bear the climate if Disney provides them a cause to take action, as was once the case with summer time celebrations. That hasn’t been true for a couple of years, although. On prime of that, I might hazard a guess that Central Florida’s rising transplant inhabitants is just not suited to summer time climate, and stays within the cooling consolation of air-conditioning through the summer time months (disproportionate to native Floridians).
This comfort-seeking conduct additionally explains why seems like crowds or congestion is decrease through the summer time. Whereas within the winter company may wander round having fun with the environment of the parks, they search refuge indoors like heat-seeking missiles (besides in reverse). That truly might imply that wait occasions are elevated relative to attendance through the summer time months. Anecdotally, I can say with full certainty that the parks usually look useless from June by way of September even when the wait occasions don’t all the time mirror that.
Shorter Hours
I really feel like a damaged report about this, however again after we fell in love with summers at Walt Disney World, the hours have been longer. Though EPCOT and DAK are unchanged, Disney’s Hollywood Studios noticed later closings on Star Wars Weekends nights and Magic Kingdom was open till 11 pm or midnight each evening, with night Further Magic Hours till as late as 3 am.
With the ability to Park Hop to Magic Kingdom and keep as late as 3 am made the summer time warmth extra tolerable to plan round. We might begin early, take a noon break, after which return for ~6 hours after sundown. It made summers satisfying, and was a simple technique to mitigate the excessive warmth.
Fortunately, Starlight will deliver again these 11 pm closings, nevertheless it’s nonetheless perplexing that just one Walt Disney World theme park is presently open for an hour after sundown. There’s a cause why Prolonged Night Hours is a lot extra common through the summer time months, and Walt Disney World is aware of this. But, it looks like a vicious cycle for summer time park hours–with decrease crowds begetting shorter hours.
No Particular Occasions
Talking of particular occasions, one other issue is the dearth of particular occasions to prop up summer time numbers. That is considerably an outgrowth of climate, as a result of Walt Disney World merely can’t schedule runDisney races or out of doors ESPN Large World of Sports activities competitions in June or July. It’s doubtless that Disney Conferences and Fairytale Weddings sees an analogous summer time slowdown.
It’s as soon as once more Food plan EPCOT through the summer time, with that being telegraphed far prematurely for 2025. (Final yr, no less than there was the launch of CommuniCore Corridor.) To be honest, there’s GoofyCore Corridor and Cool Child Summer season because the summer time push, however that’s largely advertising and marketing. It’s not just like the summer time ‘spectaculars’ of previous, and I can’t think about that an considerable variety of guests booked for the substance of Cool Child Summer season. (The reductions are a special story.)
All of that is exactly why we anticipated a brand new pageant at EPCOT or a revival of Summer season Nightastic. Walt Disney World used to have blockbuster occasions that kicked off Memorial Day weekend, and made summer time an thrilling time to go to regardless of the climate. Possibly we’ll see a return to that in 2026, as even aggressive reductions haven’t moved the needle a lot.
Minimal Mitigation
I additionally really feel like a damaged report about this, however Imagineering has seemingly constructed all of its current expansions for the California local weather. Toy Story Land, Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge, World Celebration, and extra are completely depressing ~8 months of the yr. There’s little shade providing a technique to escape the warmth or summer time showers.
It’s actually mind-boggling that Walt Disney World has not solely accomplished nothing by way of mitigation measures, however they’ve as an alternative actively constructed issues for a extra Mediterranean local weather. The most well-liked and latest areas of the parks–the locations individuals spend a disproportionate period of time–being particularly disagreeable through the summer time has doubtless contributed to visitor perceptions that summers are much less comfy at Walt Disney World.
There are doubtless different variables I’m overlooking that would assist clarify why summer time attendance has been down. Different components could be at play, and in combination might have a noticeable affect, however I believe these variables could be one thing guests wouldn’t discover if it weren’t for the pricing, post-COVID schedule disruptions, and the climate.
In the end, it’s true that wait occasions have been below-average to this point in Summer season 2025. Not fairly low season ranges however not even rising to reasonable. It’s additionally true that this isn’t a current improvement. Summer season being slower was the new-normal for a couple of years pre-COVID closures, and that development has solely accelerated since. Judging by the wait occasions we’re presently seeing, not even Walt Disney World’s lowest costs since no less than 2019 might reverse the development. It’ll be fascinating to see which new levers they pull for 2026.
Earlier than you learn all of this and suppose that summer time immediately appears like a good time to go to, uh, don’t. When you beforehand dominated out a summer time trip to Walt Disney World, contemplate the chance that you simply did so for good cause. I’m not saying you’ll have a nasty time–as we frequently say, “a wet day at Walt Disney World is healthier than an ideal day at house.” That’s true as all the time.
What I’ll say is that no matter “beneficial properties” you’ll expertise throughout summer time at Walt Disney World by advantage of objectively decrease crowd ranges and wait occasions can be worn out by subjectively inferior every part else. When you pressured me to decide on between mid-June and mid-December, I might select the latter with out hesitation. I might take 5/10 crowds with nice climate and seasonal occasions over 1/10 crowds with depressing climate and nothing particular taking place. And it’s not even a remotely shut name. Judging by all the above, it will appear that I’m removed from alone on this sentiment.
Planning a Walt Disney World journey? Study lodges on our Walt Disney World Accommodations Opinions web page. For the place to eat, learn our Walt Disney World Restaurant Opinions. To economize on tickets or decide which kind to purchase, learn our Suggestions for Saving Cash on Walt Disney World Tickets publish. Our What to Pack for Disney Journeys publish takes a singular have a look at intelligent gadgets to take. For what to do and when to do it, our Walt Disney World Trip Guides will assist. For complete recommendation, the perfect place to start out is our Walt Disney World Journey Planning Information for every part it’s essential to know!
Your Ideas
Do you agree or disagree with our evaluation as to why summer time crowds at Walt Disney World have been below-average? Or, do you disagree completely, and suppose it’s been as busy–or busier–than regular? Any observations about attendance tendencies through the fall months that comply with this summer time dip? Listening to your suggestions about your experiences is each fascinating to us and useful to different readers, so please share your ideas or questions under within the feedback!
