Walt Disney World has made main adjustments to queueing over the past 6 months. This put up combines wait instances knowledge for standby strains and stats for Lightning Lane availability with our personal anecdotal experiences with each plus ‘looks like’ crowds each single month since June to color an image of how issues have modified within the second half of 2024.
Let’s begin with crowd ranges as measured by wait instances knowledge. Suffice to say, it’s been a down yr for Walt Disney World with a gradual lower in month-to-month crowd ranges between February and October. In a standard yr, there could be a noticeable spike for spring break and Easter, adopted by a shoulder season slowdown after which a summer time uptrend.
As a substitute, this yr noticed a sluggish and regular lower. It’s particularly uncommon for Could to be busier than July, which is one thing that by no means occurs–however did in 2024! It was a sluggish summer time at Orlando’s theme parks, as we mentioned at size in Summer season (Nonetheless) Is NOT Excessive Crowds Season at Walt Disney World.
Unsurprisingly, August continued that development and September accelerated it. That a lot is to be anticipated–these two months being the slowest of the yr occurs each yr. On this case, there was an 8-week stretch in there that was the slowest since 2021, although. So even quieter than regular.
In a standard yr, October would buck that development in a giant method. Not the complete month, however fall breaks and the second half of the month would have a enough impression to make October the busiest month since spring break season. This yr, October did see an uptrend–breaking the multi-month downtrend–however barely. An enormous a part of that may be chalked as much as hurricanes, although, and Disney itself indicated the storms value them $130 million in cancellations.
November was up as in comparison with October, which can also be typical–however it noticed an even bigger bounce, doubtless as a result of aforementioned hurricanes miserable attendance in October. Nevertheless, November nonetheless fell wanting what’s regular for the month. And though December simply started, the sensible cash could be on it being the busiest month of 2024. Not due to the following couple of weeks, however as a result of the ultimate two will likely be so excessive above the remainder of the yr that they’ll carry all of December.
It’s price noting that every one of that is wait time developments inside 2024.
We normally do year-over-year comparisons, that means we’d consider November 2024 vs. November 2023 (and so forth.) as a result of it’s the extra significant comparability that accounts for the seasonality of attendance developments. When doing that, each month besides February and March had been down year-over-year, and people two had been inside 1 minute of the prior-year. All different months have been down, some significantly so.
Additionally price noting is that 2023 was largely down as in comparison with 2022, which was the peak of pent-up demand. This has been acknowledged by the corporate itself throughout earnings calls, so it’s not likely in dispute. In truth, Disney CEO Bob Iger has extra of much less stated as a lot and warned traders of attendance softness and demand moderation by 2025.
Beforehand, the corporate cautioned of a slowdown at Walt Disney World final yr, too, attributing this to the top of revenge journey, lapping the fiftieth Anniversary, and poor climate. With that stated, the corporate isn’t saying there’s been an enormous drop in attendance. On the contrary, the newest quarter noticed “comparable” customer numbers, suggesting attendance was flat or solely down barely. The wait instances present a steeper drop.
The wait instances knowledge is what it’s, and I don’t actually suppose it’s up for debate. Opposite to some anecdotal stories, you might be virtually sure to come across decrease wait instances this yr versus 2023, to not point out as contrasted with 2022.
However as we regularly level out, crowd ranges as decided by wait instances (an imperfect measure, however the one worthwhile one) should not the identical as ‘looks like’ crowds or congestion, that are extra corresponding to attendance (nonetheless imperfect, however nearer). In loads of circumstances, wait instances don’t inform the total story. That’s true yearly. We expect that’s extra so the case in late 2024 than ever.
What if the adjustments to queueing insurance policies have brought on decrease wait instances which are disproportionate with the lower in attendance? That crowds have solely dropped dramatically year-over-year if utilizing wait instances as their measure?
My principle is that precisely this has occurred.
This could be completely in step with Disney’s quarterly stories, which have (typically) talked about declines in attendance and lodge occupancy, however not practically to the diploma of wait instances.
The corporate’s monetary stories are, as anticipated, about metrics resembling earnings and per visitor spending–not wait instances. If attendance had been down in comparable measure with wait instances, we’d count on near double-digit drops. That the majority actually has not occurred.
Because of this there has virtually essentially been a divergence between posted wait instances and looks like crowds. Attendance can’t have dropped by as a lot as wait instances recommend. If it had, the Home Parks & Experiences would doubtless mirror that in its income and working earnings.
As a substitute, Disney Experiences simply posted document income and working earnings for the total yr–that means it outperformed even the banner yr of pent-up demand (a minimum of financially).
This kind of comports with my anecdotal observations about Walt Disney World crowds. I’ve spent about 5-7 days every month within the parks since June, which clearly means I’m not seeing each day at each park. Even when I had been, it’s not possible to be in every single place without delay, and congestion could be extremely variable.
However, my perspective (and once more, it is a sweeping generalization) is that the parks should not as busy as they had been in 2022 and largely down as in comparison with final yr, however not practically as sluggish because the wait instances recommend. If I needed to estimate crowd ranges based mostly purely on what I noticed and felt–and didn’t take a look at a single posted wait time–I’d fairly constantly be overshooting by 2-4 crowd ranges.
Truthfully, I can’t consider a single day I’ve visited within the second half of the yr that I perceived as much less busy than the group ranges as dictated by wait instances. It’s virtually at all times been the precise reverse. There have been loads of 1/10 to three/10 dates that I’d’ve guessed had been nearer to five/10 based mostly on merely strolling across the parks. However wait instances informed a really completely different story.
To that time, my expertise with standby strains since June has been a breeze. Posted wait instances have been manageable, they’re normally inflated, and the strains are constantly-moving. In fact, I’m largely not doing rides at peak hours when waits are the worst, however I did do TRON Lightcycle Run journey testing in any respect hours over a vacation weekend and didn’t as soon as wait even 60 minutes for it. (Posted wait instances ranged from 35 to 120 minutes.)
In truth, my longest waits of the complete yr have been for…Tiana’s Bayou Journey. A journey that has a digital queue. However that’s resulting from it breaking down repeatedly, and my knack for someway managing to queue up simply earlier than that occurs. That’s actually past the scope of this put up, however I however discover it amusing that I’ve waited in line probably the most for an attraction that…isn’t imagined to have a line.
One factor to bear in mind right here is that low crowds doesn’t imply that each attraction is a walk-on. Folks typically hear 1/10 or 2/10 crowd ranges and assume that’ll be the case. As a substitute, it means you would possibly encounter a 65-75 minute common wait time for the most well-liked rides, versus 90-120 minute wait instances. Since these numbers are averages, it additionally means increased peaks and decrease lows.
So what’s inflicting these disproportionately decrease wait instances?
My sturdy perception is that the secret is a decrease utilization price of the Lightning Lanes. Because of this fewer company are skipping the road, and are as an alternative within the common line (or doing one thing else solely). This could clarify why the standby strains are shifting extra fluidly and why wait instances are decrease–as a result of fewer company are within the Lightning Lanes and processing that backlog isn’t inflicting standby to come back to a standstill.
Beforehand, normal working process known as for a roughly 4:1 or 80:20 ratio of Lightning Lane to standby company on the the attraction’s merge level. Which means that for each one particular person admitted into the load space (or wherever merge happens) by the common queue, 4 persons are pulled from the Lightning Lane line. This was the baseline–the ratio solely will get much less favorable for the standby line!
Anecdotally, my expertise whereas within the standby strains is certainly not that 4 persons are being pulled from the Lightning Lane for each one visitor from the standby line. I’m not on the market counting the folks passing, however I wouldn’t be in the slightest degree stunned if the numbers skewed barely in favor of standby. It’s actually nothing like the ten:1 ratio in favor of Lightning Lanes that may occur throughout peak instances.
Since I’m doing technique subject testing as a part of solo analysis journeys, I’m normally standing in line on my own. And since I apparently prefer to torture myself, I’ve developed a behavior of watching the Lightning Lane visitor movement to get an concept of how and when the standby line will transfer. Previously, this has been needlessly nervousness inducing. Positively not really helpful, because it’s no enjoyable to see a gentle stream of individuals passing as you stand nonetheless.
That hasn’t been the case within the final 6 months. I’ve observed it on a number of completely different sights, however the place it was most pronounced was, once more, throughout my TRON Lightcycle Run testing. I used to be truthfully stunned that, regardless of Lightning Lane Single Move being completely bought out, the standby line was manageable and shifting. I had skilled a lot, a lot worse when TRON was utilizing a digital queue final yr.
It’s not simply TRON, both. There are a number of different sights that used to often use overflow queues for the Lightning Lanes. There have been instances when Peter Pan’s Flight would again up previous PhilharMagic, Seven Dwarfs Mine Prepare would have a number of switchbacks (through tape on the bottom), Area Mountain had a line out to the TTA observe, and so forth.
This may nonetheless occur from time-to-time, particularly on peak days or after rides return from extreme downtime. Nevertheless it was beforehand occurring with regularity, even on low season days final September or average days this winter. I haven’t seen Lightning Lanes that constantly backed up within the final 6 months.
(Observe that this solely applies to Walt Disney World. This drawback nonetheless happens at Disneyland with some extent of regularity. I don’t suppose it’s fairly as dangerous as earlier than, however it’s nothing just like the night-and-day distinction at Walt Disney World.)
To that time, the reason for that is not Lightning Lane Multi-Move or Single Move being considerably much less well-liked than their predecessors. On the contrary, Lightning Lane Single Move is promoting out far more typically than Particular person Lightning Lanes did, even in low to average crowd ranges.
The doubtless causes for this are past the scope of this put up, however it’s one thing we handle at size in Lightning Lane Single Move is Promoting Out FAST! The circumstances haven’t actually modified since that put up was printed. The title there actually says all of it, however suffice to say, a number of of those LLSPs are actually absolutely booked up upfront or have restricted same-day availability.
We’ve seen one thing related with increased demand and extra restricted stock for Lightning Lane Multi-Move. That was lined in What’s Up with Lightning Lane Multi Move Availability at Walt Disney World? The circumstances have modified since that put up was printed, as LLMPs have gotten simpler to ebook–however nonetheless extra aggressive than Genie+ Lightning Lanes.
Our preliminary clarification for this within the days that adopted the launch of Lightning Lane Multi-Move and Single Move was throttled availability. That made sense initially, as the brand new system was model new and Disney was not sure of what to anticipate, so that they doubtless needed to slowly open the valve on Lightning Lane stock.
Within the months which have adopted, this appears to have modified. Whereas it stays true that there could be restricted availability–particularly for Single Move–it’s not as dangerous as earlier than. Furthermore, our experiences in testing Lightning Lane Multi-Move have demonstrated that same-day availability (or journey reservation refills) is pretty strong.
At this level, it looks like demand is pretty sturdy for Lightning Lanes, but in addition that Walt Disney World is doing a reasonably good job of assembly this. As for why demand would stay strong, our greatest clarification is heightened FOMO and FUD–two of my favourite “facronyms.”
Since company are not shopping for Lightning Lanes same-day, it’s tougher to evaluate the necessity for them and regulate accordingly throughout your trip. As such, there’s doubtless a bent to “over-purchase” Lightning Lanes as in comparison with below the outdated system. (One other topic that’s past the scope of this put up, however it’s price studying our latest put up: When You Ought to Skip Lightning Lane Multi-Move.)
As we’ve additionally famous, Lightning Lane Premier Move additionally hasn’t actually moved the needle on utilization.
This was to be anticipated, because the audience for LLPP is exceedingly restricted. It’s my understanding that fewer than 1% of company have been buying Lightning Lane Premier Move on the overwhelming majority of days. That’ll be increased round Christmas and New 12 months’s Eve when crowds are increased, particularly at Magic Kingdom and Disney’s Hollywood Studios, however it’s nonetheless unlikely to eclipse 2% of all company.
That is exactly why Walt Disney World expanded eligibility for Lightning Lane Premier Move. Not solely is it being utilized by a really low proportion of company, however they’ve the surplus bandwidth within the Lightning Lanes to open it as much as extra company with out the system even coming near its breaking level. The underside line is that Walt Disney World has expanded its paid line-skipping methods they usually’re nonetheless performing much better than earlier than. How will we make sense of that?
The elephant within the room is that the overhaul of Incapacity Entry Service to scale back abuse and misuse is what’s having the most important impression on each wait instances and decreased utilization of Lightning Lanes. I hesitate to even broach this subject because it has actual human penalties and has been heartbreaking to learn the tales of DAS denials.
Nevertheless, it’s all however sure that the DAS overhaul isn’t only a contributing issue, however is the first purpose for shorter standby strains and fewer Lightning Lane utilization. This was one of many driving forces behind the crackdown, so it makes full sense. All the things we had heard even previous to the overhaul announcement instructed DAS utilization had exploded and was the first explanation for utilization of Lightning Lanes, not paid gross sales.
As we’ve stated repeatedly in different contexts, queueing is a zero-sum recreation. This isn’t even theoretical–Disney has been sued over lodging for disabled company prior to now, and these stats have come out throughout discovery and testimony (see A.L. vs. Walt Disney Parks & Resorts, US). A take a look at examine throughout that exposed that DAS customers skilled, on common, 45% extra sights than these with out DAS.
Needless to say this examine would’ve been performed a number of years in the past, below the outdated free FastPass+ system and previous to the explosion of TikTok and Fb teams that inspired and facilitated abuse. It stands to purpose that company who’re truly disabled and wish DAS are capable of expertise fewer (most likely far fewer) sights than fraudsters who recreation the system to basically create a free FastPass exploit.
In fact, this additionally comes on the expense of disabled company who want DAS with a purpose to take pleasure in Walt Disney World and are being unfairly denied as a part of the crackdown. Whereas it’s good to see the abusers being denied, there may be additionally collateral injury to this. Many company who’re truly disabled have been swept up within the crackdown–it’s unlucky there’s no strategy to narrowly goal the abusers. I received’t faux to know what the “excellent” answer is–however I do know that the established order is devastating, and that Disney can and may do higher.
Nevertheless, that’s additionally past the scope of this put up. That is about shorter standby strains and fewer Lightning Lane utilization regardless of demand staying sturdy. And given all the above, I have no idea easy methods to reconcile all of that with out attributing it to the DAS overhaul. There are undoubtedly different contributing elements (shifting demographics, parks persevering with to revive misplaced capability, and so forth), however the main driver is undoubtedly DAS.
In the end, that’s our principle as to why standby strains are shorter and sooner shifting on the identical time that Lightning Lane utilization has decreased, even with demand for Multi-Move and Single Move showing pretty sturdy and journey reservation stock being wholesome. This strikes us as the one believable conclusion based mostly Disney’s quarterly outcomes, wait instances knowledge, and our in depth anecdotal experiences.
As we’ve talked about earlier than, there was an inner want inside Walt Disney World to higher stability the pursuits of company utilizing standby strains and Lightning Lanes, and that seems to have been achieved. However once more, we’d be remiss if we didn’t acknowledge that this occurred with disabled company because the collateral injury. It’s saddening that this has occurred, and we nonetheless imagine Walt Disney World might narrowly tailor the system in a method that targets abusers (who had been a big variety of customers).
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YOUR THOUGHTS
If you happen to’ve visited Walt Disney World within the final 6 months, what’s been your expertise with standby strains, Lightning Lanes, and the movement of site visitors in each versus earlier visits? How about as in contrast with in-park congestion? Have you ever observed any discernible variations? Would you suggest LLMP or simply advise sticking to standby given these developments? Do you agree or disagree with my evaluation? Any questions we will help you reply? Listening to your suggestions–even whenever you disagree with us–is each fascinating to us and useful to different readers, so please share your ideas beneath within the feedback!
