It’s been a season of curler coaster crowds at Walt Disney World–excessive highs adopted by low lows–a development that’ll proceed with the arrival of extra vacation weekends and faculty breaks this winter. This wait occasions report shares knowledge for the final month and year-over-year comparisons, plus our theories as to what’s taking place with attendance & traces–and why wait occasions are getting worse at portray an entire image of crowds.
One factor these crowd reviews not have to do is provide an extended preface to assist clarify their strengths and limitations, or addressing misconceptions about crowds. That’s as a result of I’ve kicked that out to its personal record of the “High” 10 Methods Walt Disney World Followers Are Mistaken About Crowds. That’s price studying if you would like a greater understanding of WDW attendance patterns, appears like crowds vs. wait occasions, and some pretty simple methods to “beat” the crowds.
Which means we are able to dig proper in and rapidly recap the vacation season. Christmas is now formally within the books, with Magic Kingdom taking down its decor and turning off the music as of yesterday (January 15). That makes it time to do a autopsy on crowds. Wait occasions for Walt Disney World as an entire had been down noticeably on a year-over-year foundation from mid-November via mid-January. This doesn’t imply there weren’t 9/10 or 10/10 crowd stage days–there completely had been–so let’s break down what it does imply…
Jersey Week via Veterans Day noticed a slight spike to reasonable territory, with crowds plummeting the week after to lows rivaling their August and September lows. I used to be within the parks for many of this time, and my anecdotal notion was that it wasn’t too dangerous. Even the busiest stretch wasn’t dangerous, particularly when it got here to Lightning Lane or technique testing. That little lower than every week earlier than Thanksgiving week is one to focus on in 2025.
Unsurprisingly, Thanksgiving week was the busiest of November with crowds arriving the Sunday earlier than, peaking on Monday, and persevering with till Thursday. By Friday, the sharp downtrend had already begun. However even at its peak, Thanksgiving week was not really busy. Crowd ranges, at the least as measured by wait occasions, ended up being reasonable. (As at all times, congestion is a unique story.)
That together with the primary two weeks of December all ended up having low crowd ranges. Throughout the first 3 weeks of December, common wait occasions throughout the whole lot of Walt Disney World ranged from 26 to 29 minutes. These are exceptionally good crowd ranges, and decrease than final yr (which was decrease than the earlier yr, too).
Most surprisingly, wait occasions dropped every week, making our favourite week of the complete yr at Walt Disney World the “busiest” of the bunch. We’re nonetheless speaking low ranges, however often every week of December will get progressively busier.
My finest guess is that larger costs are having a deterrent impact on attendance exterior of vacation home windows (which means friends who aren’t beholden to high school breaks are extra inclined to comparability store dates primarily based on value), and that’s one thing price preserving in thoughts. With revenge journey firmly within the rearview mirror, many customers have gotten extra cost-conscious and fewer free spending. (This might clarify a whole lot of different traits we’ve noticed these days.)
What got here subsequent confirmed the limitation of upper costs having a deterrent impact on attendance throughout faculty breaks. The week of Christmas had a 46 minute common wait time–20 minutes larger than the week instantly earlier than it–for a 9/10 crowd stage that was sufficient to make it the busiest week since Easter.
The week encompassing New 12 months’s Eve had a 50 minute common for 10/10 crowd ranges, making it, as soon as once more, the busiest of the yr at Walt Disney World. Hardly a shock, because the week of NYE is persistently the worst of the yr. (Word that each holidays fell on Wednesdays, so these weeks really included days earlier than and after every.)
Additionally unsurprising is that crowds have dropped since then. Final week had a 33 minute common for 4/10 crowds, and this week-to-date is sitting at 25 minutes for 1/10 crowd ranges. These traits are roughly what you’d count on, however that also doesn’t even start to inform the complete story. We’ll cowl what this implies and, maybe extra importantly, what it doesn’t imply, under.
First, right here’s a take a look at weekly wait time traits courtesy of thrill-data.com simply to place this all into perspective:
This exhibits weekly wait time knowledge courting again to 2019. The left peak is that Christmas and New 12 months’s Eve, from earlier than the world went sideways (therefore the hole for a pair months in 2020). Then there’s a bunch of ineffective knowledge from mid-2020 and 2021, adopted by comparable peaks on the opposite half for the final three years.
The week within the lead-up to New 12 months’s Eve in late 2023 is the tallest line on that graph (barely), with a mean wait time of 61 minutes. That’s 11 minutes busier than the comparable week in 2024. However once more, there isn’t actually a totally comparable week. December 31, 2023 was a Sunday, which means that was a full week for the needs of those timeframes. So it’s not an apples to apples comparability.
However, 2023’s week main as much as New 12 months’s Eve was the busiest single week at Walt Disney World for the reason that identical week in late 2019 into early 2020. That is significantly notable as a result of 2023 was in any other case a slower yr than 2022. We’ve been speaking concerning the exhaustion of pent-up demand for some time, but it surely really began final yr with most weeks being slower than 2022. The week of New 12 months’s Eve was the uncommon–and important–exception to that.
Even with out apples to apples comparisons, you may plainly see this gradual weekly downtrend from 2022 highs to 2023 and 2024. It’s in all probability tougher to discern, however 2019 wait occasions sit just under 2022. It bears emphasizing that wait occasions are not a proxy for park attendance. There are such a lot of issues that impression posted wait occasions knowledge and make annual comparisons from 2019 to now pointless (free FastPass+ vs. paid Lightning Lanes, and the utilization of every being one biggie). However we’re getting forward of ourselves–extra alongside these traces under.
Right here’s a take a look at every day wait occasions over the course of the final yr:
The far left begins with mid-January 2024, and the far proper is mid-January 2025. Clearly, all the times in between are in between.
Have a look at the far left facet. The primary large spike there’s Presidents’ Day, then early Spring Break, adopted by Easter. What’s most noticeable, I feel, is how largely elevated these days are as in comparison with the post-Easter drop-off in early April. That is exactly what prompted us to write down Winter (Nonetheless) Is Not Off-Season at Walt Disney World final yr. After virtually a full yr of declining wait occasions (versus the identical months within the prior yr), January via March 2024 noticed wait occasions enhance.
It didn’t final. Those that comply with crowd patterns want no reminder, however final summer season’s “efficiency” revived commentary that Summer season (Nonetheless) Is NOT Excessive Crowds Season at Walt Disney World, with different websites even claiming it’s now low season. It isn’t, as needs to be apparent by the prolonged sea of inexperienced beginning in late August.
Now in equity, there have been two hurricanes that collectively price Walt Disney World $130 million in misplaced income. Even at Disney costs, that quantities to a whole lot of cancellations, explaining why late September via the primary few weeks of October had been artificially depressed. Fall break nonetheless noticed a comparative spike, however not almost to the extent as regular–or it might’ve however for the hurricanes.
However, the decrease wait occasions endured into components of November and December, and there’s no climate to clarify these away. Equally as important, this yr’s wait occasions fell off a cliff on January 12, 2025 to ranges far under the identical dates final yr. So the massive query turns into…are there any alternative ways to clarify this away?
Sure, at the least to some extent. Frankly, there should be, as Disney hasn’t reported a steep drop off in attendance on its earnings calls. They did warn traders of attendance softness and demand moderation via 2025 throughout one earnings name earlier within the yr. Nevertheless, the latest quarter noticed “comparable” customer numbers to the prior-year quarter, suggesting attendance was flat or solely down barely.
Against this, Walt Disney World’s wait occasions do present a steep drop, extra like 10%. This got here as quarterly income elevated, and annual income reached a brand new document, up by 5% versus the prior yr. That’s not simply Walt Disney World, although; it additionally contains Disneyland and the worldwide parks, in addition to (maybe most notably) Disney Cruise Line. So not a lot could be gleaned from that.
This comes on the identical time when Common reported income for its theme parks division down 5.3% on lighter attendance (to an unknown diploma). The distinction is that Common opened Tremendous Nintendo World in Hollywood in early 2023, and noticed a pointy drop-off final yr after that. In Orlando, followers have been suspending visits within the lead-up to Epic Universe. Not a lot we are able to surmise about Walt Disney World attendance from any of this.
In our view, the only largest clarification for the drop in wait occasions is that Walt Disney World made main adjustments to its queueing insurance policies in mid-2024. Wait occasions haven’t been as excessive since–even on comparably congested days.
We defined this in Right here’s Why Standby Traces and Lightning Lanes Are Transferring Sooner at Walt Disney World and have mentioned it elsewhere. That’s actually price studying if you wish to perceive the rising disconnect between ‘appears like’ crowds and wait occasions.
Throughout our vacation season visits to EPCOT, specifically, we actually felt this. Even on random weekdays throughout one of many quieter weeks of December, congestion was excessive. If you happen to had been simply strolling round having fun with the ambiance, as many friends had been clearly doing, you’d’ve perceived what felt like 10/10 crowd ranges. Wait occasions, alternatively, mirrored crowd ranges of round 4/10 to six/10 on these days.
It was an identical story in Magic Kingdom, particularly within the evenings on non-party dates. These actually really feel like they’re getting worse, to the purpose that I’d hazard a guess that Walt Disney World’s experiment in providing free Park Hoppers–virtually actually accomplished to normalize attendance throughout occasion season–backfired and made Magic Kingdom busier on dates it was open later.
We’ve mentioned all of this a number of occasions during the last couple of months, but it surely all bears reiterating as Winter 2025 heats up. EPCOT’s Competition of the Arts begins tomorrow (January 17, 2025), and this annual occasion has change into a fan-favorite that’s a giant draw for locals and vacationers alike.
This weekend is a vacation weekend, so it’d possible see a spike in attendance regardless, however we’re anticipating that will probably be sustained. Simply as we wrote final yr, winter nonetheless isn’t low season–and that’s nonetheless (nonetheless nonetheless) the case even when attraction wait occasions counsel in any other case.
Finally, this does current us with one thing of a dilemma in easy methods to talk about wait occasions and crowds going ahead.
Wait occasions are used as a proxy for crowd ranges as a result of they’re the one goal measure for that. There’s actually no various–even when somebody had countless assets and will make use of 8 researchers to be within the parks each single day from opening till shut, that will nonetheless be too anecdotal to be of worth. And on the finish of the day, wait occasions nonetheless are what’s necessary to most planners, even when congestion can go away an outsized impression.
It nonetheless bears strongly underscoring this rising disconnect between wait occasions and congestion or appears like crowds. We are able to solely assume that wait occasions will proceed to be down considerably year-over-year as a result of aforementioned queueing coverage adjustments and postponed visits within the lead-up to Epic Universe (and Disney Starlight Night time Parade), however solely the latter impacts attendance. These coverage adjustments will proceed to make for tough year-over-year wait time comparisons till round Summer season 2025, which is true across the time attendance might additionally see a lift as a result of new additions. Which may make for a double-whammy the place the numbers go from showing down considerably year-over-year to up by comparable margins.
All of that is my means of claiming to not take wait occasions and crowd stage reporting too critically proper now, at the least in terms of year-over-year comparisons. This website and others are going to proceed sharing the the info is trending downwards. That’s true. However it’s at all times been the case that wait occasions introduced an incomplete image of crowds. Now it’s actually true, to the purpose that you simply is perhaps disenchanted or shocked for those who simply take a look at the stats and expect the parks to be ghost cities throughout your go to. Attendance is perhaps down barely, but it surely gained’t be to almost that diploma.
On the contrary, all it takes for even heavier appears like crowds year-over-year is extra locals and followers within the parks versus first-timers. The previous teams usually tend to wander round and do issues apart from points of interest, whereas the latter focus extra on rides. And this would possibly very nicely occur if extra APs are in circulation, ticket offers show fashionable, or first-timers balk at the price of Disney holidays. That’s to say nothing of decreased capability on account of refurbishments, closures and development. The underside line is that there are a whole lot of variables that contribute to congestion or appears like crowds, and wait occasions are just one piece of the puzzle.
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YOUR THOUGHTS
What do you consider wait time and crowd traits over the course of the final 6-7 months, however particularly in the course of the latest vacation season and Winter 2025? Anticipate ‘appears like’ crowds to be heavy over the following couple of months, even when the wait occasions counsel a slowdown? Every other crowd issues we did not consider or particulars we missed/obtained improper? Do you agree or disagree with my evaluation? Any questions we can assist you reply? Listening to your suggestions–even if you disagree with us–is each attention-grabbing to us and useful to different readers, so please share your ideas under within the feedback!
