One of many busiest instances of the 12 months at Walt Disney World is fall break. Federal holidays and faculty recesses trigger crowd ranges to spike, which catches many guests unexpectedly. October 2024 can be a bit completely different than regular, however we’re nonetheless anticipating weeks with excessive wait instances in Magic Kingdom, EPCOT, Animal Kingdom, and Hollywood Studios–the busiest dates since Easter!
Technically, fall break “season” has already began. Some college districts do a number of ‘scholar holidays’ or ‘skilled improvement days’ for academics in late September and October. Different faculties, universities, and Ok-12 college programs take longer breaks deeper into the month of October.
It’s not simply fall breaks that contribute to congestion, both; as coated in our 2024 Walt Disney World Crowd Calendars, there are a number of explanation why the subsequent few months include a few of the busiest dates of all the 12 months. With that mentioned, this 12 months is certainly going to be completely different–as emphasised within the opening–making the already unpredictable fall break crowds even much less predictable than regular…
The massive wildcard this 12 months is the aftermath of Hurricane Helene and Hurricane Milton. This put up was initially slated to be revealed in late September, however the arrival of Helene prompted us to postpone, desirous to see the potential impression it had. Sadly, it was a major one. Not for Central Florida, however that isn’t the one–and even major–consideration since Walt Disney World is a vacationer vacation spot fueled by out-of-state guests.
It was once more slated to be posted over the weekend, however then Hurricane Milton entered the chat. This storm system did undergo Orlando and even resulted within the closure of Walt Disney World. Fortunately, Milton was not as catastrophic as anticipated. However once more, that’s not the one related consideration in how this storm has or will impression crowds. In each instances, it’s the cascading results.
Usually, the weekend of Columbus Day/Indigenous Peoples’ Day is among the many worst of the autumn break season. That won’t be the case this 12 months, on account of households from out-of-state cancelling their holidays and because of restricted park reservations for Annual Passholders as Walt Disney World works to cut back up and get better post-storm.
It’s our expectation that this weekend can be very busy by post-storm requirements (that are usually fairly sluggish), however attendance can be down dramatically by vacation weekend requirements. There’ll possible be an enormous year-over-year lower in wait instances because of cancelled journeys, journey disruptions, and potential attendance constraints for Annual Passholders.
There’s additionally the truth that college students all through Florida and the remainder of the South have now handled two storms in below a month. The regular post-storm dynamic is that locals are wanting to get out of the home and Walt Disney World sees a spike in visitation amongst Annual Passholders and different Floridians. And that would occur this weekend to some extent–however it received’t be sufficient to offset the cancellations.
Equally vital is the cumulative impact of college closures in some main districts for successive storms. Our fall break crowd forecasts are usually pushed by a mix of college calendars from Southern states in addition to “feeder” districts within the Midwest and Northeast. Sadly, many households from the latter may have cancelled their journeys and others from the previous may lose their fall breaks on account of storm make-up days. So the revealed district calendars are nearly ineffective for forecasting October 2024 crowds.
The excellent news is that we do have kernels of data to make semi-informed (albeit typically outdated) predictions. For starters, Walt Disney World has prolonged park hours all through October 2024. These extensions sign that the interior attendance forecast is elevated for at the least a part of the month, and this observe of extending hours occurs with consistency every time crowd ranges are anticipated to be above-average to heavy.
On dates which can be forecast to be busiest, Magic Kingdom is closing at 11 pm on nights when it’s not internet hosting Mickey’s Not So Scary Halloween Occasion and is opening at 8 am on most days–celebration or not. Animal Kingdom is opening at 8 am and staying open till 7 pm on many nights. Sadly, each EPCOT and Disney’s Hollywood Studios are retaining their 9 am to 9 pm hours for now.
In wanting solely on the persistently longest park hours extensions, Walt Disney World expects October 11 to October 21, 2024 to be the height of fall break season within the parks. Remember that these prolonged hours first began hitting the calendar a number of weeks in the past–this weekend was prolonged in late September, earlier than even Hurricane Helene was forecast. And in the case of including hours, Walt Disney World typically has a “no takebacks” philosophy, that means that after hours are prolonged, they aren’t undone–even when now not “wanted.”
Walt Disney World’s park hours extensions are in step with our predictions, additionally made lengthy earlier than the hurricanes. We had flagged October 11-19, 2024 as being one of many the ten worst ‘weeks’ of the 12 months. Actually–see our record of the 10 Finest and 10 Worst Weeks to Go to Walt Disney World in 2024 to 2026.
Within the commentary to that record, we famous that final 12 months’s fall break was “solely” the #9 worst week of the 12 months and there was a good probability it could fall of the record solely in 2024. We famous that some potential guests is perhaps spooked away by storm season or still-hot climate. Because it seems, that was correct–though “spooked by storm season” has turned out to be a light understatement!
However, we identified that these dates would usher in the long run of the low season, and begin of a 3-month stretch of elevated crowds–minus just a few main lulls. That half is correct, even after the hurricanes. Walt Disney World is coming off its slowest 8-week stretch (quickly to be 9-week stretch due to Milton), and the arrival of fall break will completely change that. This weekend and coming week is not going to be among the many worst 10 of the 12 months–and doubtless not even the worst 20–on account of hurricane disruptions. It’ll nonetheless be busy sufficient to finish low season–this can be a turning level for Walt Disney World crowds.
As for which week of fall break will possible be the busiest, it’s tough to say. Way more main college districts have earlier scholar recesses than have later ones. Even with Milton-induced cancellations, there’s nonetheless a robust chance that October 11-19, 2024 finally ends up being worse than October 20-27, 2024.
Actually, I’d be inclined to wager that’s the case. The distinction is that, beforehand, our expectation was that fall break crowds would peak throughout the earlier half of that Oct. 11-19 vary, and begin dying down by the second weekend. Submit-Milton, our prediction is that attendance climbs all through these dates.
The explanation for that is easy: every day faraway from Milton, its impacts can be much less pronounced. Out of state vacationers arriving on Saturday can be much less more likely to cancel than these scheduled to reach Friday, these arriving Sunday much less more likely to cancel than these coming Saturday, and so forth.
Vacationers with journeys scheduled beginning October 15 in all probability is not going to be cancelling in any significant numbers–crowds will play out as predicted weeks or months in the past. Given this, our revised prediction is that the worst fall break crowds happen October 14-21, 2024 at Walt Disney World. That’s a reasonably secure wager post-storm, and it additionally encompasses two lengthy weekends and two Mondays–usually the busiest day of the week at Walt Disney World.
For reference, let’s check out final 12 months’s crowd ranges (courtesy of thrill-data.com). Common wait instances peaked on October 16, leaping to 50 minutes for a 9/10 crowd degree. Notably, that was the Monday after Columbus Day, which fell earlier final 12 months. Simply two weeks prior was nonetheless the low season.
Crowd ranges steadily fell all through the week, and by October 22, there was as soon as once more one other lull. Regardless of October 16 being the busiest single day, the height full week was really October 9-15, 2023 (crowd degree 8/10 and common of 42 minutes). Against this, October 16-22 had a crowd degree of 6/10 for a median of 38 minutes. Each of those weeks have been significantly slower than 2022, however that was the peak of pent-up demand.
In each of the final two years, crowd ranges drop by the final full week of October and keep low-to-moderate till Veterans Day. Opposite to fashionable perception, there may be not a spike for Halloween. There’s a little bit of a bump–albeit extra in “appears like” crowds than wait instances–for the runDisney Wine & Dine Half Marathon, although.
If annual patterns proceed to play out, Fall Break 2024 could be slower than final 12 months–that’s the overarching pattern. That nearly actually would’ve been true even earlier than Hurricanes Helene and Milton. Now it’s a executed deal. Simply remember the fact that “slower than final 12 months” is a relative time period and never an absolute one. Relative to the final two months, the subsequent couple of weeks will completely be busy–even within the aftermath of the storms.
It’s extremely unlikely that this 12 months’s fall break peak crowd ranges surpass Easter. That was extremely unlikely even earlier than the hurricanes, and was/is just a matter of traits noticed during the last couple of years. We don’t like utilizing the phrase “not possible,” however it’s a lot nearer to that than simply “extremely unlikely” at this level. The hurricanes sealed the deal on that.
However, one of many subsequent two weeks in all probability would be the busiest week since Spring Break. Once more, the impression of the hurricanes is an actual wildcard. However just about each single week since Easter has underperformed in 2024. The months of Could by way of September have all been down year-over-year, as has nearly each single week inside that stretch.
For fall break to be the busiest week since spring break, all it could must do is have a median wait time of 36 minutes or larger. That’s solely a 5/10 crowd degree. Solely a few weeks since April have averaged 35-minute crowds; most have struggled simply to hit the 30-minute mark. The comps are fairly favorable and simple for fall break to beat–all of it comes right down to the extent of hurricane cancellations.
Subsequent, let’s discuss wildcards. As mentioned in Finest & Worst Days to Do All Parks at Walt Disney World in 2024 (and numerous different posts), day of week traits actually matter this time of 12 months. Select the “right” parks on one of the best days of the week, and also you’re more likely to have a pleasing expertise even in reasonable to above common crowds.
Select the “incorrect” parks on the worst days of the week, and also you is perhaps shocked by how excessive wait instances are even throughout weeks with 1/10 or 2/10 crowd ranges. Bear in mind, these are averages throughout all of Walt Disney World–there’s a ton of day-to-day inconsistency on the park degree.
One other attention-grabbing wildcard that would depress crowds additional is the dearth of a Florida resident ticket deal. One simply wrapped up on the finish of September, leading to a slight spike then. The distinction is that, final 12 months, one other Floridian ticket deal (for weekdays solely) nearly instantly launched for October by way of December. That has not occurred in 2024 (but?).
One other variable is that Mickey’s Not So Scary Halloween Occasion is bought out for each single date. That alone is fairly unremarkable, as the identical factor has occurred for the previous couple of years. What’s extra noteworthy is that October 2024 dates bought out even quicker than final 12 months (or the 12 months earlier than) regardless of pent-up demand in any other case being exhausted and common ticket costs being larger.
Now let’s discuss beating the crowds. First, bear in mind how we mentioned prolonged park hours on the prime of the put up? Properly, these added hours are extremely advantageous–particularly the sooner opening instances since most vacationers don’t need to do the early wake-up name on trip.
Selecting the optimum days to do every par, particularly DHS and Magic Kingdom–after which profiting from Early Entry at each parks–is big. Don’t underestimate Early Entry, or visiting these parks on days which can be more likely to be much less crowded. It’s an analogous story with Disney’s Hollywood Studios or Animal Kingdom within the evenings.
By merely arriving early or staying late at each park, you’ll be able to beat the worst of the noon crowds. (After all, that’s “easy” in principle however tougher in observe, particularly you probably have young children. That’s an enormous motive why wait instances are decrease very first thing within the morning and later within the evenings.) Past that, you’ll want to additionally take a look at our Walt Disney World Itineraries for plans of assault.
It’s solely potential to beat dangerous crowds by using Lightning Lane Multi-Go, Early Entry, Prolonged Night Hours, rope drop, and so forth. We cowl one of the best & worst strategy for every park in Finest Time-Saving Methods for Walt Disney World. In the event you’re solely going to learn one planning put up, make it that.
There are nice methods to beat the crowds–even on busy days–with out shopping for Lightning Lane Multi-Go (LLMP) or Single Go (LLSP). We don’t purchase line-skipping companies more often than not, and discover we’re capable of just do wonderful as long as we’re up early or out late–ideally each!
Talking of which, we now have a complete Information to Lightning Lanes at Walt Disney World for individuals who need to completely grasp the most recent technology of paid FastPass. Weeks like this, it’s positively an excellent possibility for Magic Kingdom, Hollywood Studios, and EPCOT. (We seldom suggest LLMP at Animal Kingdom, and that is still true throughout fall break, too.)
General, that’s about what you’ll be able to anticipate to expertise throughout Fall Break 2024 at Walt Disney World. Count on elevated ‘appears like’ crowds beginning just about proper now, even within the aftermath of Hurricane Milton. How issues unfold over the course of the subsequent two weeks actually relies upon upon what number of Northeast and Midwest vacationers received spooked into cancelling their journeys plus what number of Southern states misplaced their lengthy weekends for hurricane make-up days.
Neither of these issues we will predict with any diploma of confidence. My private expectation is that subsequent Monday, October 14, is the begin of busier days that continues all through the next week, with the chance of a later peak than initially anticipated. Even with Columbus Day falling later this 12 months, the height may even in all probability occur later.
We aren’t utterly assured that the final week-plus of October may have the identical diploma of slowdown as final 12 months. There are college districts with late fall breaks, and that coupled with vacationers who postponed journeys–fairly than cancelling utterly–may transfer the needle. There are additionally a few large conventions within the final two weeks that would actually throw a monkey wrench into crowds. Regardless, there needs to be a quick slowdown in late October and early November earlier than the vacation season kicks into excessive gear.
Ultimately, we wouldn’t essentially keep away from fall break ‘season’ you probably have a school-aged little one and haven’t any higher choices exterior of the large vacation breaks within the ultimate quarter of the 12 months. All of these (Veterans Day, Thanksgiving, Christmas, New Yr’s) are a lot worse than fall break in a standard 12 months with none hurricanes artificially miserable crowds.
Planning a Walt Disney World journey? Study inns on our Walt Disney World Inns Critiques web page. For the place to eat, learn our Walt Disney World Restaurant Critiques. To save cash on tickets or decide which kind to purchase, learn our Ideas for Saving Cash on Walt Disney World Tickets put up. Our What to Pack for Disney Journeys put up takes a novel take a look at intelligent objects to take. For what to do and when to do it, our Walt Disney World Journey Guides will assist. For complete recommendation, one of the best place to start out is our Walt Disney World Journey Planning Information for every little thing it is advisable know!
YOUR THOUGHTS
Have you ever visited Walt Disney World throughout fall break previously? What did you consider the crowds? Are you visiting this 12 months? Did you cancel your fall break journey on account of Hurricane Milton? In the event you’re in a southern college district, have you ever misplaced fall break on account of hurricane make-up? Anything we missed that would impression crowds in October 2024? Do you agree or disagree with something in our Fall Break 2024 Crowd Forecast for Walt Disney World? Any questions we will help you reply? Listening to your suggestions–even once you disagree with us–is each attention-grabbing to us and useful to different readers, so please share your ideas beneath within the feedback!
