With the arrival of August, Walt Disney World’s surprisingly gentle summer season season is winding down–that means that crowds ought to fall even additional with the unofficial arrival of the “fall” low season and Halloween 2024 on the horizon. This wait occasions report covers journey & each day information for final month at Magic Kingdom, EPCOT, Hollywood Studios, and Animal Kingdom.
To reiterate, Walt Disney World has not been busy for the previous few months. It’s been a gradual summer season at Orlando’s theme parks, as we focus on at size in Summer time (Nonetheless) Is NOT Excessive Crowds Season at Walt Disney World. That provides our theories as to why summer season has been slower, in addition to why it’s not likely all that stunning and is a development first noticed in 2016-2018.
However, the summer season slowdown has been extra pronounced than even we anticipated. However two issues are sure: that summer season has not been significantly crowded at Walt Disney World, and that in a standard 12 months, August and September could be even much less busy than June and July. So it’s not that the low crowds are ending–it’s that they’re on the precipice of dropping to their lowest ranges of the 12 months.
Earlier than delving into the info, we need to supply some background as there all the time appears to be pushback towards claims of decrease crowds on a few bases. The primary is from those that visited Walt Disney World just lately and had experiences that they have been suggestive of the parks being busy. Perceptions and expectations are what they’re, so there’s actually no arguing with or refuting that.
What I’ll merely say is that there’s no common customary for crowd ranges–it’s all relative. Some followers declare Walt Disney World is “all the time busy” now and “there’s no low season.” This isn’t the angle of crowd calendars. Clearly not, in any other case they’d be ineffective. “It’s all the time dangerous” shouldn’t be a really useful approach of advising you as to which dates to go to, even when it’s rather more concise.
In actuality, there’s a pronounced distinction that anybody might really feel between 1/10 days and 10/10 days, and even 3/10 versus 7/10 crowd ranges. With that stated, the parks should not veritable ghost cities (for essentially the most half) permitting you to do snow angels on the bottom at even the bottom ranges. You will see rides with hour-plus posted wait occasions. You will encounter areas of congestion. “Uncrowded” at Walt Disney World means one thing completely different than it does at Yellowstone Nationwide Park or some random dying mall on the outskirts of city.
However, it’s solely comprehensible that company would have firsthand experiences that recommend to them Walt Disney World was something however “gradual.” Maybe their body of reference is 2020, 2016, and even 2008–all occasions when the parks have been much less busy than this summer season. Perhaps they’ve by no means visited in any respect and have been overwhelmed by the expectations vs. actuality. Perhaps they received unfortunate with journey breakdowns. All of this does occur, so this sort of skepticism is sensible.
Much less smart are the feedback, totally on social media, with a subtext suggesting we’ve some type of agenda in wanting Walt Disney World attendance to be excessive or low. Once we share information that crowds are growing, some people who’re actively cheering for Disney to fail decry the experiences as lies. When crowds are down, others do the identical.
Walt Disney World crowds have (sadly) grow to be a part of the tradition wars. It’s very silly. Even other than tradition wars, there’s the sense amongst many disgruntled Disney followers that the corporate must “be taught a lesson,” whether or not that be courtesy of Epic Universe, decrease crowds, or who is aware of what else. In any case, there’s no agenda right here. Walt Disney World attendance is what it’s. No quantity of us discussing the subject places our “thumb on the size” to vary that.
We’re clearly not the arbiters of attendance statistics, both. When it’s down, we report that. When it’s up, we additionally report that. (And that’ll occur in like 2 months!) This has been the case for years, so except our “agenda” is like Two-Face from Batman, that argument doesn’t actually go muster. (Sorry for venting, the responses to those crowd experiences have simply gotten so tedious and annoying that I’ve pulled again from doing them as a lot consequently.)
On this specific case, it’s tough to argue that we’ve an agenda in spreading “misinformation” about low crowds except you additionally assume that Disney CEO Bob Iger and CFO Hugh Johnston have the identical agenda. Over the last Walt Disney Firm quarterly earnings name, each warned of a looming attendance slowdown for theme parks. Not solely that, however Walt Disney World has been underperforming for a number of consecutive quarters as in comparison with the opposite parks and Disney Cruise Line.
If all of that sounds acquainted, it ought to. This additionally isn’t the primary, second, and even third time the corporate has straight addressed it and indicated that pent-up demand has been exhausted at a few of the parks. No, the parks should not useless or ghost cities or completely empty, however they’re down as in comparison with the peak of pent-up demand. As we’ve stated earlier than, that is hardly a five-alarm hearth, and there are levers that Disney has been pulling to buoy bookings.
That final earnings name was again in Could, so it’s previous information at this level. Disney’s subsequent earnings name is in per week (August 7), and that ought to present extra particulars about the newest quarter. Within the meantime, Comcast simply held its quarteryl earnings name final week, the place the corporate revealed that income at Common’s theme parks was down 11%.
Common blamed the income drop on a number of elements, together with unfavorable comparisons to the pent-up demand interval and a rise in different journey choices, reminiscent of cruises and worldwide tourism, given the power of the greenback. In addition they attributed the lower to an absence of latest points of interest in Orlando. Actually, two-thirds of the drop was tied to decrease attendance on the firm’s parks in Florida and California. Executives additional indicated that this downtrend was prone to proceed till the opening of Epic Universe in 2025.
There’s no cause to consider Disney or Comcast executives are flawed or mendacity about any of this. It goes with out saying that Common will see a rebound from Epic Universe. The large unknown is whether or not Disney additionally will–on account of extra folks visiting Orlando and spending time at each–or if the downtrend will proceed at Walt Disney World all through 2025. However that’s past the scope of this put up.
With that out of the best way, let’s dig into the info and take a look at Walt Disney World wait occasions. As all the time, all graphs and stats are courtesy of Thrill-Information.com:
We’ll begin with the month-to-month numbers for Walt Disney World as an entire. This covers each single month from January 2019 (far left) to July 2024 (far proper), so you possibly can see simply present crowds examine to previous ones.
It’s tough to discern, however listed below are July numbers:
- July 2019: 7/10 crowds; 41 minute common wait time
- July 2020: 0/10 crowds; 14 minute common wait time
- July 2021: 6/10 crowds; 40 minute common wait time
- July 2022: 7/10 crowds; 41 minute common wait time
- July 2023: 4/10 crowds; 36 minute common wait time
- July 2024: 2/10 crowds; 30 minute common wait time
July 2020 was the beginning of the phased reopening, with attendance capped to such a level that this information–and just about all dates from that month by Could 2021–must be thrown out.
It’s additionally value declaring that the drop from 7/10 crowds in July 2022 to 2/10 crowds in July 2024 is “solely” a distinction of 11 minutes. That will not look like a lot, however that’s how delicate crowd ranges are to shifts in wait occasions. (Additionally, 11 minutes for each single attraction is an enormous distinction and it actually provides up over the course of the day.)
To me, what’s most attention-grabbing about that is seeing a lower each single month since February. In a standard 12 months, there could be a noticeable spike for spring break and Easter, adopted by a shoulder season slowdown after which summer season spike (or two). Even with summers being much less busy within the final decade, this was the dynamic we have been seeing.
As a substitute, this 12 months has proven a gradual and regular lower. It’s particularly uncommon for Could to be busier than July, which is one thing that by no means occurs–however did in 2024! All of it is a huge cause why we argued that Walt Disney World Wants ‘Summer time Nightastic’ in 2025. With out making a concerted effort to show the summer season slowdown round, it’s solely going to worsen with every passing 12 months.
With the week by week view, we are able to see that crowds have been fairly fixed this summer season. There was a slight spike on the tail finish of June, however even that solely received numbers again to Could ranges.
One factor I do need to observe is that Walt Disney World has been laying the bottom for the rollout of Lightning Lane Multi-Move since Could 20. It’s my sturdy perception that this has resulted in a gradual discount of standby wait occasions over the course of June and July. I don’t have any approach of corroborating this with information–it’s merely a mix of my anecdotal observations and a little bit of background data.
Accordingly, it’s extremely possible that the lower in wait occasions is proportionally bigger than the lower in attendance (or seems like crowds, for that matter). By how a lot, I’ve no clue. However this most likely is a decently important issue and one which the gang information is “lacking,” because it’s solely a measure of standby wait occasions…and never an evidence for them. (Therefore our coloration commentary!)
Wanting on the each day information, it’s a bit simpler to identify the spike on the finish of June, adopted by one other lull for the Independence Day vacation weekend. I’m not going to rehash the “why” of that–see Low Fourth of July Wait Occasions at Walt Disney World.
What’s additionally simply barely seen is a slowdown this week after Monday (often the busiest day of any given week at Walt Disney World). As we’ve stated beforehand, the final week of July is often the “final hurrah” of summer season–with vacationers taking holidays that week earlier than preparing for college within the weeks that observe.
It’s all the time attainable that August sees a quick spike to start out the month, however that’s not one thing we’ve noticed lately. On the contrary, the primary week of August has been slower than the final week of July with a good quantity of consistency. It was once that mid-August was the tip of the summer season season–now that’s moved ahead to the start of the month, and even the previous few days of July.
We haven’t accomplished park by park evaluation shortly, however are going to return to it for this crowd report because it’s the final replace earlier than Celebration Season actually throws a monkey wrench into issues.
Let’s begin with Magic Kingdom. The very best bars every week are virtually all the time Mondays and Tuesdays, and generally Wednesday. Lowest are sometimes Saturdays and Sundays. As a normal rule, although, Magic Kingdom is quieter, crowd-wise, than it was final 12 months.
See Greatest & Worst 2024 Crowd Days at Magic Kingdom for a fool-proof checklist of the least and most crowded dates at Magic Kingdom between now and December 2024. This features a handful of purple flag dates to keep away from in any respect prices.
As for this summer season at Magic Kingdom, there was a little bit of a spike throughout previews and across the opening of Tiana’s Bayou Journey, however not a lot. The reimagined journey hasn’t actually moved the needle a lot on wait occasions, which is partially to be anticipated because it makes use of a digital queue.
Nonetheless, it’s nonetheless attention-grabbing as a result of the journey has been down so much, and the company who may very well be using it are (presumably) as a substitute doing different issues. It additionally doesn’t look like giving Magic Kingdom a lot of an attendance increase–there’s not practically the influence as, say, TRON Lightcycle Run. That is much less stunning. Tiana’s Bayou Journey shouldn’t be brand-new, and its opening date was introduced too late for a near-term increase from summer season vacationers.
I’m extra curious in regards to the lengthy tail of Tiana’s Bayou Journey. Amongst informal company, is the reception optimistic or damaging? How do its visitor satisfaction scores examine to Splash Mountain? Are the downtime and reliability woes ‘breaking containment’ from the fan neighborhood and reaching most of the people? I don’t have the solutions to any of those questions. Truthfully, it’s actually tough to evaluate something about this attraction from the angle of the common visitor–moderately than the polarized fan neighborhood.
Animal Kingdom has larger wait occasions on common, nevertheless it additionally has far fewer rides than Magic Kingdom.
Besides on the very worst days of the 12 months, Animal Kingdom is way and away the park at Walt Disney World the place the crowds are essentially the most “beatable.” As long as you arrive early or late, you completely don’t want to purchase Lightning Lane Multi Move right here.
In the event you’re going all out and have a vast finances, you might disagree. To every their very own, I suppose. On the plus facet, most company do agree with us, which is why there aren’t tiers at Animal Kingdom and why it’s the most cost effective park for LLMP and why it has the most effective stock. You would possibly need to take into consideration all of that–and the why of that–earlier than shopping for.
EPCOT wait occasions are essentially the most attention-grabbing.
We all the time level out that EPCOT is the locals’ park, and Floridians usually tend to go to for festivals and environment than rides. (In the event that they don’t do rides, they don’t influence crowd ranges–even when they do improve congestion or traces for meals cubicles!) Locals are additionally extra possible than vacationers to cancel park plans on the final minute if the climate is dangerous–and it has been a sizzling and wet month.
Because of all this, wait occasions usually don’t inform the total story at EPCOT. This summer season, they do. A minimum of, in our expertise. EPCOT has been useless since June. There have been a number of exceptions to that (per the wait occasions), however we weren’t there on any of these days, so I can not communicate to that.
This actually makes me wonder if Walt Disney World regrets the choice to shorten Flower & Backyard and Meals & Wine–or to not introduce a brand new summer season competition. The interior considering was that there have been diminishing returns on the longer festivals, with locals getting “competition fatigue” the final couple years.
Effectively, I believe that is a type of classes that issues can all the time worsen. It completely was true that locals misplaced curiosity within the overly lengthy festivals. It’s additionally true that no competition in any respect is even worse for EPCOT attendance and wait occasions. (Once more, climate can also be an element–nevertheless it’s not like final summer season was good!) I actually marvel how Walt Disney World will adapt subsequent 12 months. Clearly, “Food regimen EPCOT” for practically 3 consecutive months shouldn’t be the reply. Ouch.
Lastly, there’s Disney’s Hollywood Studios.
As all the time, that is the park with the best common wait occasions in all of Walt Disney World, owing to its disproportionate variety of headliners coupled with stage exhibits that put up no wait occasions in any respect (and thus don’t drag down averages). Summer time has been pretty unremarkable at DHS. Slower than final August or this winter, however not considerably so.
I’m truly considerably stunned that Disney’s Hollywood Studios didn’t see extra of a lower within the lead-up to the launch of Lightning Lane Multi-Move. Or possibly it did, and this information is what that appears like. The summer season wait time common at DHS was virtually 10 minutes decrease than final 12 months. It’ll be attention-grabbing to see whether or not this development reverses. As we’ve famous, DHS has emerged early-on as the most effective park for LLMP. (See What’s Up with Lightning Lane Multi Move Availability at Disney World?)
Wanting ahead, climate is prone to play an outsized function (much more so than regular for summer season) in dictating crowd ranges for the subsequent couple of weeks. Meteorologists are forecasting highs within the mid-90s and rain each single day for as far out because the prolonged forecast goes. In different phrases, a mean August for Central Florida! However wait, there’s extra.
In accordance with the Nationwide Hurricane Middle (NHC), there’s a disturbance monitoring by the northern Caribbean islands might type into Tropical Storm Debby because it crawls close to the jap Gulf of Mexico and Florida this weekend into early subsequent week. Clearly, so much might change between from time to time with the storm system’s monitoring, however no matter the place it goes, Florida will possible see a major improve in rainfall this weekend into early subsequent week.
I don’t find out about you, however for me, the proper strategy to usher within the begin of Halloween season is…checks notes…a 93° excessive and triple-digit “seems like” temperature plus a tropical storm scare. That’s just about the forecast for the primary Mickey’s Not So Scary Halloween Celebration of the 12 months. On a completely unrelated programming observe, I’ve made the “tough” choice to attend the D23 Expo in Anaheim, the place highs can be within the mid-80s with lows within the mid-60s and nil probability of rain. I’ll catch MNSSHP later within the season.
In the end, it’ll be attention-grabbing to see what occurs within the subsequent few weeks with crowds at Walt Disney World. Southern college districts will begin going again into session throughout the subsequent week; a number of main ones together with Atlanta and the Gulf Coast had their first days right now–August 1! In Central Florida, each Osceola and Orange County colleges return into session on August 12, 2024.
It’s attainable that this week sees a little bit of a last-minute surge of Southerners, nevertheless it’s additionally attainable that the climate retains a whole lot of locals sitting on the sidelines. No matter how this week performs out, there must be a extra pronounced drop-off across the center of the month (except the climate will get actually dangerous, through which case, it’ll arrive earlier) and subsequent week. The next week ought to see a good sharper drop, heralding the unofficial begin of the autumn low season at Walt Disney World.
As a normal matter, it’s protected to count on low season crowd ranges even decrease than the low factors of June and July by subsequent week. Common wait occasions must be at or beneath the 30 minute mark as of subsequent week. That’s adequate for round 1/10 to 2/10 on the gang calendar, which isn’t too shabby!
We’ll see whether or not the diploma to which these predictions find yourself being correct, or if Walt Disney World crowds and wait occasions throw us one other curveball. We’ll proceed monitoring crowds and report again in late August or early September after the beginning of Mickey’s Not So Scary Halloween Celebration.
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YOUR THOUGHTS
Ideas on late summer season crowds at Walt Disney World? Predictions for August 2024 or fall low season? In the event you’ve visited throughout the final month or so, what did you consider crowds? What about posted vs. precise wait occasions? Any parks, days of the week, or occasions of day noticeably worse than others? Do you agree or disagree with something in our report? Any questions we may help you reply? Listening to your suggestions–even while you disagree with us–is each attention-grabbing to us and useful to different readers, so please share your ideas beneath within the feedback!
