November and December are two of the busiest months of the yr at Walt Disney World. Faculty recesses, lengthy weekends and full week breaks trigger crowd ranges to spike, and might catch friends unexpectedly. We’re anticipating dates with excessive wait instances in Magic Kingdom, EPCOT, Animal Kingdom, and Hollywood Studios–the busiest since Easter!
We frequently consult with the vacation season as having curler coaster crowd ranges, as a result of these few months have low lows and excessive highs. No matter this and whether or not you go to through the valleys or peaks, be ready for elevated wait instances by historic requirements–the ‘low lows’ will not be fairly as uncrowded as you’re anticipating.
The highs are pushed by the plain. Individuals having time without work work and college districts having pupil holidays, and wanting to go to Florida throughout some of the nice instances of yr–and Walt Disney World throughout one of the best seasonal occasion. The lows are basically the inverse of that–because of the proximity of the aforementioned breaks, households are much less more likely to pull their youngsters out of college to journey throughout these home windows.
It’s a bit just like the late summer season low season, which is true after college goes again into session however earlier than fall break. The important thing distinction being that those that aren’t beholden to high school schedules have a a lot bigger incentive to go to Walt Disney World through the lulls of November and December.
The opposite distinction is that there are some landmines or smaller holidays this time of yr that sneak up on Walt Disney World planners. We’ve already mentioned most of those at size in our November 2024 Crowd Calendar and December 2024 Crowd Calendars for Walt Disney World, so you need to be aware of the affect of Jersey Week or Veterans Day by this level (if not, they’re mentioned once more beneath).
Along with these, there are some extra under-discussed holidays that we wish to cowl that would transfer the needle on crowds, particularly within the nearer time period. Fortunately, these don’t change our underlying suggestions. Specifically, our checklist of the 10 Greatest and 10 Worst Weeks to Go to Walt Disney World in 2024 to 2026 already recognized November 4-11, 2024 as one of many worst weeks of the whole yr.
Our earlier evaluation indicated that that is what occurs when two or three “holidays” collide–should you depend Jersey Week as a vacation. Through the latter, roughly 73% of the Backyard State descends upon Walt Disney World. Effectively, because it seems, there are literally extra like 5-6 “holidays” colliding right here. Let’s talk about every and its potential affect on crowd ranges…
runDisney Wine & Dine Half Marathon Weekend
Within the final couple of years, runDisney occasions haven’t had the identical affect on crowd ranges as in earlier years. That is presumably as a consequence of runners doing the occasions however not buying park tickets in larger numbers for no matter cause (worth will increase?). Possibly fewer runners now have Annual Passes?
Nonetheless, there may be nonetheless a non-zero affect on crowd ranges as a consequence of runDisney races. That is principally felt earlier than the marquee marathons (on this case, the Half Marathon on Sunday, November 3, 2024). It’s additionally disproportionately in Magic Kingdom and EPCOT. Consequently, we’d anticipate elevated crowds in each parks on the Saturday of race weekend.
By the Monday following the races, the impact from runDisney members is negligible primarily based on wait instances information. There are nonetheless some stragglers, to make certain, however they don’t seem to be a main driver of crowds. The pattern we’ve noticed within the final two years is for the drop-off to begin occuring the Sunday of race weekend. In fact, that’s not the one variable at play right here.
Diwali
I’ll be trustworthy with you: Diwali is a blind spot for me. To be clear, I do know what Diwali is (the Pageant of Lights), that it’s celebrated for five or 6 days, that it’s a very powerful competition of the yr in India, and is well known by hundreds of thousands (if not a billion-plus) of Hindus and South Asians internationally. I additionally know that it has gained rising prominence at each Walt Disney World and Disneyland–there’s gotta be a demographics cause for that.
What I don’t know is the diploma to which Diwali strikes the needle on crowds at Walt Disney World, if in any respect. It’s my understanding that quite a lot of college districts with excessive concentrations of South Asian communities, significantly these within the Northeast, have a protracted weekend due to Diwali. This seems to be a rising motion, with Pennsylvania formally recognizing Diwali as a state vacation as of 2024.
How it will translate into crowds at Walt Disney World (if in any respect) remains to be unclear. Information from the previous few years means that it doesn’t. Normally, one of the best predictor of current and future crowds is the previous, but when this can be a motion that’s gaining momentum, that wouldn’t essentially be true. It’s additionally true that 2024 received’t essentially be indicative of a Diwali-fueled pattern, as there are a number of components at play this yr.
Day of the Useless
One other of these is Day of the Useless, or Día de los Muertos. That is much less of a blind spot for me, as I’m fairly assured only a few (if any) college districts in the USA have a protracted weekend as a consequence of Day of the Useless. Even the districts we watch in Southern California round Disneyland don’t have pupil holidays for Día de los Muertos (though many have de facto days off to look at the Dodgers parade).
Suffice to say, if SoCal colleges don’t have Día de los Muertos off and there’s zero affect on Disneyland crowds, there’s no manner random districts in Illinois or Missouri that feed into Walt Disney World crowds have it off. So there’s additionally no affect on Walt Disney World crowds. It’s potential a handful of households from Mexico take lengthy weekend journeys to Florida, however once more, it’s not sufficient to maneuver the needle on total crowd ranges.
Election Day
That is what impressed this in any other case belated submit within the first place. In our dialogue of why Lightning Lane Premier Cross costs spike on November 4, a number of readers identified that they state holidays for Election Day. Admittedly, I used to be skeptical of this at first, as not that many states supply days off for the election, and none of them are inside affordable driving distance of Walt Disney World. Even so, there are longer vacation breaks in November which can be extra fascinating for journeys to Walt Disney World.
Then one reader identified that many college districts have Election Day and the Monday beforehand off work, as colleges are sometimes used as polling locations for ease and accessibility. Consequently, many districts within the Midwest, Northeast–and probably past–have lengthy weekends. While you add days off for Diwali or, maybe extra importantly, the following entry on this checklist, that’s a doubtlessly lengthy break to go to Walt Disney World.
The issue right here is that we don’t have good information on the affect (or lack thereof) of Election Day. The final presidential election was in 2020, and that was an anomaly for apparent causes. The one previous to that was 2016, and that was a very completely different period. Wait instances had been low the primary full week of November in each years, however it will be silly to view that as precedential. This yr might be completely different.
Jersey Week
The New Jersey Training Affiliation (NJEA) conference on November 7-8, 2024 is what provides rise to the notorious Jersey Week. Though this vacation continues to catch followers unexpectedly, as does the outsized affect of “solely” one state having a break, that is already baked into our crowd calendar. It’s an enormous driver behind our prediction that November 4-11, 2024 is without doubt one of the worst weeks of the yr.
Jersey Week is normally an enormous driver of crowds through the first week of November, and it shouldn’t be any completely different this yr. For a few of you, it would stretch credulity {that a} single state–and one geographically pretty removed from Florida–may have such a major affect on crowds. I don’t know what to inform you apart from: it does.
Crowds within the coming week being elevated as a consequence of Jersey Week is hardly a daring or new prediction. The annual academics’ conference has had a major affect for so long as I can keep in mind. I’ve been within the parks for a lot of Jersey Weeks, have chatted with many friends from the Backyard State, and even departed MCO final yr with the Jersey Week wave. (My one criticism of Jerseyites is that they don’t rep Devils jerseys in excessive numbers. “You gotta assist the crew!” ~Puddy)
Veterans Day
The main nationwide vacation on the horizon is Veterans Day, which falls on Monday, November 11, 2024. That is the week after the above entries, but it surely being a protracted weekend beginning on Friday for some college districts means it’ll trigger greater crowds that coincide with Jersey Week (and so on.) on November 8-10, 2024.
Veterans Day is at all times a “sneaky” vacation for crowds at Walt Disney World. It’s under-discussed, however a surprisingly excessive variety of authorities employees, college students, and others do have the day without work. We’ve been warning about Veterans Day crowds for years, because it has been virtually on par with Thanksgiving some years. It’s a protracted weekend that may have an outsized affect on crowd ranges.
We’ve talked about this numerous instances, however that’s an more and more common lengthy weekend at Walt Disney World, and the majority of the busy days will truly happen earlier than Veterans Day itself–particularly with the vacation taking place on a Monday this yr. Severely, Veterans Day is well one of many busiest vacation weekends of the yr, far surpassing Memorial Day, Fourth of July, and Labor Day.
In fact, it’s not the one massive vacation throughout November and December, however I doubt any Walt Disney World followers would doubt that Thanksgiving, Christmas, or New 12 months’s Eve are busy stretches. Together with Columbus Day (additionally one of many worst weekends/weeks), Veterans Day sneaks up on lots of people!
Busiest Days at WDW Throughout This Window
Given the unprecedented timing of those numerous occasions and holidays, and the way they overlap, it’s doubtlessly worthwhile to have a look at alerts from Walt Disney World as to their attendance forecasts. Sadly, I’m unsure how instructive that’s, on condition that Disney is sending combined messages.
If we take a look at Lightning Lane Premier Cross costs, Walt Disney World believes the worst crowds can be November 4, 6-7, 9-10.
Lightning Lane Multi-Cross pricing tells a distinct story. I’m not even certain what that story is, as a result of prices are in every single place. The one fixed is November 10, 2024. Two different days which can be virtually constant are November 8-9, so it will appear that LLMP pricing analysts anticipate the Veterans Day lengthy weekend being busiest.
Extensions to park hours roughly corroborate this, as Walt Disney World has the longest hours from November 7 to 11, 2024.
For no matter it’s value, this is kind of what we imagine. Although we forecast November 4-11, 2024 to be one of many 10 worst weeks of the yr, our expectation was that crowds can be backloaded as a consequence of Veterans Day. That Jersey Week would balloon numbers all week lengthy, however that the weekend can be busiest.
Saturday being the height of the vacation weekend is smart, and is the one commonality should you align the aforementioned costs with park hours extensions. Saturday can also be the lone day when Magic Kingdom has the uncommon midnight closure. For those who requested me a couple of months in the past to choose the busiest day, it will’ve been Saturday.
Nevertheless, I can also’t assist however wonder if Walt Disney World is leaning a tad an excessive amount of on historic information. Usually, Saturday wouldn’t be the busiest day of a vacation week, or perhaps a lengthy weekend. Veterans Day being noticed on a Monday as an alternative of Friday (like final yr) may imply that Sunday doesn’t fall off as a lot as regular and that Saturday isn’t as busy.
I can also’t assist however wonder if each Walt Disney World and this web site haven’t given applicable weight to the present lengthy weekend as a consequence of Election Day, and so on. I anticipated it to be a non-factor as that’s been the case in earlier years, however now I’m not so certain whether or not previous precedent displays current actuality. If a excessive variety of friends are doing full weeklong holidays as an alternative of lengthy weekends, the busiest days ought to be Monday and Tuesday (primarily based on traits for different weeklong holidays).
The “downside” in making an attempt to evaluate crowd ranges at this level is that this isn’t a weeklong break or vacation weekend…it’s each. Some friends can be taking a full trip and others can be taking a fast getaway. It boils all the way down to the distribution of every that issues. Suffice to say, it’ll be fascinating to see which days are busiest. It’s troublesome to foretell given the countervailing components and lack of dependable previous precedent.
It’s unlikely that Jersey Week/Election Day/Veterans Day/and so on. crowd ranges surpass Easter, however this week-plus virtually definitely will surpass Columbus Day/Indigenous Peoples’ Day/Fall Break. Although the 2 weeks are normally neck and neck, the hurricane threw a monkey wrench into attendance traits this yr and, presumably, triggered numerous cancellations.
One of many weeks in November will virtually definitely be the busiest week since Spring Break. That’s as a result of just about each single week since Easter has underperformed in 2024. The months of Could via October have all been down year-over-year, as has virtually each single week inside that stretch.
For November 4-11, 2024 to be the busiest week since spring break, all it will must do is have a mean wait time of 36 minutes or greater. That’s solely a 5/10 crowd stage. Solely a few weeks since April have averaged 35-minute crowds; most have struggled simply to hit the 30-minute mark. The comps are fairly favorable and simple to beat–Jersey Week (and so on.) ought to have the ability to do it.
Now let’s discuss beating the crowds. The added hours we talked about above are extremely advantageous–particularly the sooner opening instances since most vacationers don’t wish to do the early wake-up name on trip.
Selecting the optimum days to do every park, particularly Disney’s Hollywood Studios and Magic Kingdom–after which making the most of Early Entry at each parks–is large. Don’t underestimate Early Entry, or visiting these parks on days which can be more likely to be much less crowded. It’s an analogous story with DHS or Animal Kingdom within the evenings.
By merely arriving early or staying late at each park, you possibly can beat the worst of the noon crowds. (In fact, that’s “easy” in idea however harder in follow, particularly if in case you have young children. That’s an enormous cause why wait instances are decrease very first thing within the morning and later within the evenings.) Past that, make sure to additionally try our Walt Disney World Itineraries for plans of assault.
It’s solely potential to beat unhealthy crowds by using Lightning Lane Multi-Cross, Early Entry, Prolonged Night Hours, rope drop, and so on. We cowl one of the best & worst strategy for every park in Greatest Time-Saving Methods for Walt Disney World. For those who’re solely going to learn one planning submit, make it that.
There are nice methods to beat the crowds–even on busy days–with out shopping for Lightning Lane Multi-Cross (LLMP) or Single Cross (LLSP). We don’t purchase line-skipping providers more often than not, and discover we’re capable of do exactly high-quality as long as we’re up early or out late–ideally each!
Talking of which, we’ve got a complete Information to Lightning Lanes at Walt Disney World for many who wish to totally grasp paid FastPass. Weeks like this, it’s undoubtedly an excellent choice for Magic Kingdom, Hollywood Studios, and possibly EPCOT. (We seldom advocate LLMP at Animal Kingdom, and that is still true.)
General, that’s about what you possibly can anticipate to expertise throughout mid-November 2024 at Walt Disney World. How issues unfold over the following couple of weeks actually relies upon upon what number of Northeast and Midwest vacationers have time without work from college or work for Election Day and different holidays earlier than Veterans Day. These are the unknowns–the whole lot else right here is pretty priced-in.
Years of wait instances and on-the-ground expertise tells us that Jersey Week and Veterans Day are large holidays, which is exactly why November 4-11, 2024 makes the worst weeks checklist. The unanswered query is whether or not the opposite holidays and days off could make this window go from unhealthy to worse, or redistribute day by day crowds inside it. Nobody can predict this with a excessive diploma of confidence, which might seemingly lengthen to even Walt Disney World, as their very own attendance ‘alerts’ are contradictory.
In the long run, we wouldn’t essentially keep away from the upcoming week if in case you have a school-aged youngster and don’t have any higher choices outdoors of the even larger vacation breaks within the last quarter of the yr. Whilst we’re warning in regards to the upcoming window, there ought to be little doubt that the weeks of Thanksgiving, Christmas, and New 12 months’s Even can be a lot worse than Veterans Day/Jersey Week/and so on. They at all times are.
For complete ideas for planning your Christmas-time journey to Walt Disney World, try our Final Information to Christmas at Walt Disney World. For Walt Disney World journey planning ideas and complete recommendation, ensure to learn our Walt Disney World Journey Planning Information and associated articles.
YOUR THOUGHTS
Have you ever visited Walt Disney World throughout this ‘sneaky’ window in mid-November previously? What did you consider the crowds? Are you visiting this yr? Do you might have Election Day or any of the above holidays off work or college? Anything we missed that would affect crowds in November 2024? Do you agree or disagree with something in our crowd forecast for Walt Disney World? Any questions we may also help you reply? Listening to your suggestions–even whenever you disagree with us–is each fascinating to us and useful to different readers, so please share your ideas beneath within the feedback!
