Everybody is aware of that the weeks of Christmas and New 12 months’s Eve are two of the busiest of your entire 12 months at Walt Disney World, with the latter being #1 by far and having 10+/10 crowd ranges. Nonetheless, they’re not #1 and #2, with the primary week really being a lot “higher” than early 2025.
This crowd report takes a glance again at wait instances for your entire vacation season to see how dangerous crowds have been at Magic Kingdom, EPCOT, Hollywood Studios, and Animal Kingdom. We’ll additionally take a look at wait instances for the previous couple of years to place into context how a lot worse the week main as much as NYE actually is than all different weeks of the 12 months–and the way/why early 2025 is more likely to be worse than Christmas.
One factor these crowd stories not must do is supply an extended and rambling preface to assist clarify what they do and don’t do, addressing misconceptions about crowds. That’s as a result of I’ve kicked that out to its personal record of the “High” 10 Methods Walt Disney World Followers Are Incorrect About Crowds. That’s price studying if you would like a greater understanding of WDW attendance patterns, appears like crowds vs. wait instances, and some pretty simple methods to “beat” the crowds.
By way of crowds to this point this vacation season, Walt Disney World as a complete hasn’t been too busy on a month-to-month, weekly or day by day foundation. Jersey Week and Veterans Day noticed a slight spike to reasonable territory, with crowds plummeting the week after to lows rivaling their August and September lows. That little lower than every week earlier than Thanksgiving week is one to focus on in 2025.
Unsurprisingly, Thanksgiving week was the busiest of your entire vacation season to this point with crowds arriving the Sunday earlier than, peaking on Monday, and persevering with till Thursday. By Friday, the sharp downtrend had already begun. That’s additionally one thing to bear in mind for 2025, as our favourite week of the 12 months at Walt Disney World appears to be beginning earlier and earlier. At this level, you possibly can do a late night time flight after your loved ones feast and luxuriate in a reasonably low-crowds lengthy weekend at Walt Disney World.
As all the time, the week instantly after Thanksgiving was blissfully uncrowded. That together with the primary two weeks of December all ended up having low crowd ranges, particularly as in comparison with what’s anticipated subsequent. Common wait instances throughout everything of Walt Disney World ranged from 25 to 29 minutes throughout this 3-week stretch. These are exceptionally good crowd ranges, and decrease than final 12 months (which was decrease than the earlier 12 months, too).
I promised that there wouldn’t be an extended preface, however there are a few necessary issues to notice. A giant one is that Walt Disney World made main modifications to its queueing insurance policies about 6 months in the past, and wait instances haven’t been as lengthy since–even on comparably congested days.
We defined this lately in Right here’s Why Standby Strains and Lightning Lanes Are Transferring Quicker at Walt Disney World. That’s additionally price studying, because it covers how there’s extra of a disconnect between ‘appears like’ crowds and wait instances than anytime in the previous couple of years.
Throughout our Christmas-time visits to EPCOT, specifically, we actually felt this. Even on random weekdays throughout one of many quieter weeks of December, congestion was excessive. Strains for Vacation Kitchens had been prolonged. Ditto Candlelight Processional, which had the longest eating package deal line I had ever seen.
For those who had been simply strolling round having fun with the environment, as many company had been clearly doing, you’ll’ve perceived 10/10 crowd ranges. Wait instances, then again, had been completely manageable. These are the one goal measure of crowds, in order that they’re how ranges are literally assessed. And on that foundation, crowd ranges had been 4/10 to six/10 on the times we visited.
Equally, selecting the “proper” days to go to Magic Kingdom and avoiding the “mistaken” ones makes a world of distinction throughout December. Not simply at Magic Kingdom (though positively there), but in addition each different park. For those who do MK on the fitting days, you’re doubtless avoiding the mistaken ones…and each different park is far much less busy on these.
Past that, the vacation season is a curler coaster for crowds. Between the beginning of November and early January, there aren’t any fewer than a half-dozen holidays and breaks which have big impacts on crowd ranges. A few of these are apparent–the weeks of Thanksgiving, Christmas, and New 12 months’s Eve. Others, like Jersey Week, are decidedly much less so.
The superb information is that in between these holidays, there are lulls in crowds. The breaks act as crowd magnets, of kinds, for Walt Disney World. Individuals are much less more likely to take off of labor or pull their youngsters out of college when a built-in break is simply across the nook. This makes the downtime much more pronounced, except locals and diehard Disney followers who know concerning the higher instances and are capable of go to throughout them. (That second half is vital. Lots of people have the information–far fewer can act upon it!)
That brings us to the following few weeks, that are all the time busy. Clearly, these haven’t occurred but, so all we are able to supply are predictions based mostly on previous precedent and historic wait instances information.
Final 12 months, the week main as much as Christmas had a mean wait time of 45 minutes, making it busier than Thanksgiving or any week of the 12 months since Spring Break. It’s price noting that Thanksgiving and Easter (all the time the height week of Spring Break) are not in the identical ballpark when it comes to crowd ranges. Thanksgiving is busy, however not Easter or Christmas busy. It’s simply that there aren’t any different really busy holidays between that lengthy stretch of the 12 months.
For instance, Thanksgiving week this 12 months peaked with a mean wait time that was 18 minutes decrease than the height of Easter week (that’s an enormous unfold in averages) and the elevated crowd ranges didn’t final as lengthy. Thanksgiving “week” isn’t an precise week of heavy crowds–it’s basically 4-5 days. Against this, the Easter spike lasts over a full week.
And this brings us to the week between Christmas and New 12 months’s Eve final 12 months. Final 12 months, that week had a mean wait time of 61 minutes. Bear in mind, Christmas week was 45 minutes, which was very busy–method worse than Thanksgiving or any week since Easter. So NYE week was 16 minutes busier than Christmas (on common), which was already a lot busier than Thanksgiving.
In the long run, final 12 months’s week main as much as New 12 months’s Eve was the busiest single week at Walt Disney World for the reason that similar week in late 2019 into early 2020. That is significantly notable as a result of 2023 was in any other case a slower 12 months than 2022. We’ve been speaking concerning the exhaustion of pent-up demand for some time, but it surely really began final 12 months with most weeks being slower than 2022. The week of New 12 months’s Eve was the uncommon–and vital–exception to that.
Right here’s a take a look at weekly wait time developments courtesy of thrill-data.com simply to place this all into perspective:
Drilling down from weeks to particular person days, December 28-30, 2023 all set new data for the worst day of the post-reopening interval…that had been damaged by subsequent days. The averages on these days had been 68 to 70 minutes, beating the 67 minute common of December 27, 2023 that was tied on the time for the busiest day of the post-reopening interval (with December 29, 2022).
To not level out the apparent, however today had been all 10+/10 crowd ranges. I do know it’s stylish so as to add plusses to every part today for no discernible cause, however there’s good cause for this one. At the moment, a 53 minute wait time is a 9/10 crowd stage, whereas 54 minutes is sufficient to hit the ten/10 crowd stage threshold. Nonetheless, that 70 minute common continues to be a ten/10 crowd stage, technically.
That’s a 16 minute unfold–which is totally large–however the very same crowd stage. Nowhere else on the size (besides, I suppose, 1/10 because it might theoretically begin at 0 minutes–however that by no means occurs in observe) has that vary. Normally a crowd stage has a spread of some minutes earlier than it strikes up or down. Not 10/10. It may be 54 minutes, 67 minutes, 80 minutes, 330 minutes, and many others. Therefore the ten+/10 crowd stage.
The salient level is that there are various levels of ‘dangerous’ crowds and that 10/10 isn’t a static stage of awfulness. That is additionally why followers saying it’s “apparent” that crowd ranges shall be 10/10 between Christmas and New 12 months’s Eve are lacking the purpose.
Sure, it’s apparent that crowds will hit 54 minutes. However how a lot increased will they go? That is what will not be apparent, and people additional minutes could make a really huge distinction. It’s one thing you may’t absolutely admire except you’re there and experiencing these wait instances.
Level being, that stretch main as much as New 12 months’s Eve final 12 months noticed the worst common wait instances since at the least December 2019. That’s proper–there wasn’t a single day in 2020, 2021, or 2022 that surpassed December 27-30, 2023. That’s the 4 busiest days in 4 years! Not simply the worst 4-day stretch, both. Every of these particular person dates had been the busiest single days since 2019. It was not “apparent” that this could occur–on the contrary, pattern traces instructed it wouldn’t, even amidst sure-thing 10/10 crowd ranges.
Right here’s how day by day December 2023 crowds seemed so as to add a bit extra context:
Notably, lots of the dates within the first half of the month have common wait instances of lower than half the 68-70 minute averages of the times main as much as New 12 months’s Eve. Christmas week was no slouch, however these wait instances are downright reasonable relative to the week that adopted.
This can be a sample that performs out fairly persistently from 12 months to 12 months, and can nearly definitely repeat itself in 2024, 2025, 2026, and many others. The precise numbers will change; the developments is not going to. You’ll be able to all the time count on Christmas week to be busier than the few weeks earlier than it, and the week after that–and main as much as New 12 months’s Eve–to be even busier than Christmas.
Nonetheless, as instructed by the title, the loopy crowds don’t finish as soon as the clock strikes midnight on New 12 months’s Eve. Right here’s a take a look at year-to-date wait instances for 2024:
Take a look at the far left aspect. The busiest 5-day stretch of 2024 stays, to this date, the primary 5 days of the 12 months. The times that adopted dropped off a bit, however that whole week stays tied with Easter because the #1 worst week of the year-to-date. Fall Break, Veterans Day, Jersey Week, Thanksgiving, and many others. didn’t even come near beating it.
The primary week of 2024 will doubtless find yourself tied for the second-worst week of the 12 months. Christmas in all probability is not going to surpass it–it hasn’t for years. New 12 months’s Eve undoubtedly will, since that’s additionally the long-running pattern.
If we’re speaking about issues which can be “apparent” to Walt Disney World followers and misconceptions, right here’s one other. There’s nonetheless a reasonably widespread perception that crowd ranges plummet on New 12 months’s Day, which is believed to be “lifeless” as everyone seems to be hungover or heading dwelling. Many followers additionally consider the times that comply with are likewise gradual. Some followers additionally assume there’s then a spike brought on by the Walt Disney World Marathon Weekend.
That is nearly completely mistaken.
I suppose it’s true that New 12 months’s Day begins out gradual…for like an hour or two, and solely relative to the previous couple of days which can be completely off the charts. This can be a pattern we’ve positively noticed in watching real-time posted waits. I’ve additionally accomplished a number of early morning New 12 months’s Days for the sake of pictures, as I used to have the ability to run on like zero sleep. The gradual begin is a factor, but it surely’s a short-lived one. By noon, January 1 is busy.
Nonetheless, everybody going dwelling and crowds letting up for a number of days is unquestionably not a factor. At the least, not anymore. Longtime Walt Disney World followers little question bear in mind crowd ranges plummeting in a single day from New 12 months’s Eve to Day, and the parks being ‘sleepy’ from then till the lead-up to Marathon Weekend (which was generally over a full week away). It was downright blissful, particularly in case your journey began earlier than NYE and also you had been subjected to these crowds on the entrance finish, and refreshingly empty parks throughout the second half.
Followers bear in mind this phenomenon as a result of lots of them nonetheless attribute crowds in early January to the runDisney race. To make certain, that’s definitely a contributing issue, however it’s not the primary driver of crowds. In the previous couple of years, runDisney races–throughout the board–have had a way more noticeable impression on resort occupancy than attendance or crowd ranges.
Extra considerably, this pattern has occurred with out a lot regard for Marathon Weekend. The true drivers for heavy crowds throughout the first week of January are ongoing winter breaks, lifting of Annual Move blockouts, and considerably decrease costs than the earlier weeks. Even because the week main as much as NYE is off-the-charts busy, we’re listening to anecdotal stories of budget-conscious vacationers shifting their visits to the next week.
Our sturdy suspicion is that the largest drivers are Central Florida’s rising inhabitants and extra locals with Annual Passes which can be topic to blockout dates across the peak weeks of Christmas and New 12 months’s Eve. Though there’s nonetheless a giant hole, Walt Disney World’s visitor demographics are resembling Disneyland extra with every passing 12 months.
Floridians now have an outsized impression on crowds, which wasn’t all the time the case. After we first began doing this, it was higher to look at college calendars from main districts within the Midwest and Northeast. Now, the timing of the largest and closest districts in Florida is a greater predictor of crowds than different states. (That’s not as seen right here, as most districts across the nation all have this time without work–but it surely’s apparent when you’re taking a look at Spring Breaks, which may be very completely different.)
Wanting ahead to early 2025, most native college districts–together with Orange County–don’t return into session till January 7, 2025. Because of this Monday might nonetheless be busy as a little bit of a final hurrah, however that additionally requires dad and mom having that time without work work, and most is not going to.
As such, our expectation is that January 1-5, 2025 could be very busy, January 6 sees elevated crowds, and there’s a drop-off beginning January 7, 2025. We’d additional predict that this 7-day stretch would be the busiest at Walt Disney World till Easter (surpassing the favored Presidents Day/Winter Break), and certain till subsequent New 12 months’s Eve.
Talking of Presidents Day and Winter Break, there’s an inexpensive chance that week in Winter 2025 is busier than this 12 months’s Christmas week. That was the case this 12 months (in comparison with the prior Christmas), albeit solely by 1 minute. It’ll be an in depth name once more, particularly because it doesn’t coincide with Mardi Gras. The distinction is that “everybody” expects Christmas week to be busy, whereas Winter Break catches individuals without warning.
The Walt Disney World Marathon occuring January 8-12, 2025 ought to make the prediction concerning the first week of January and its causes pretty simple to establish. (Since marathon crowds will largely happen the second week of January 2025.)
We nonetheless count on marathon week to be above-average, however we’re extraordinarily assured within the prediction that it received’t be as dangerous as the primary 7 days of 2025. Or, for that matter, a lot worse than a mean week in Winter 2025. No matter crowd ranges these two weeks really find yourself being ought to pretty nicely settle the “trigger” of them.
(For no matter it’s price, my theories as to why runDisney isn’t as impactful to crowd ranges are that fewer out-of-state runDisney contributors are nonetheless Annual Passholders on account of rising prices, runners are chopping journeys quick on account of rising journey prices, and fewer are buying multi-day tickets (additionally on account of rising prices). Anecdotal reader suggestions appeared to counsel some or all of this was true, however clearly, it’s nonetheless only a principle.)
Past this, it’s additionally secure to foretell that Winter 2025 shall be busy at Walt Disney World because of delicate climate inflicting extra deferred visits, a fan-favorite seasonal occasion, and multi-year developments on this route. See Winter (Nonetheless) Is Not Off-Season at Walt Disney World for extra.
I wouldn’t count on wait instances or crowd ranges in January by means of early March 2025 to be up year-over-year, given the decrease waits that we’ve usually seen within the final 6 months plus postponed visits as theme park followers await Epic Universe. However that doesn’t actually matter except you’re a statistician.
Notion is actuality, and Walt Disney World company are nonetheless shocked by winter crowds, interval, regardless of this sample rising in 2017. It takes typical WDW knowledge some time to catch as much as actuality, which is why so many continued declaring October the low season lengthy after that ceased being true or why some followers nonetheless consider the parks are lifeless post-NYE. Crowds this winter shall be extra ample that individuals understand them as being worse than their very own expectations.
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YOUR THOUGHTS
Have you ever visited Walt Disney World for Christmas, New 12 months’s Eve, or throughout the first week in January in the previous couple of years? What was your expertise? Ideas on our evaluation for these weeks? Do you agree or disagree with the gang predictions or rationales? Any questions we may also help you reply? Listening to your suggestions–even once you disagree with us–is each fascinating to us and useful to different readers, so please share your ideas beneath within the feedback!
