Walt Disney World crowds are controversial. However then once more, isn’t all the pieces today?! Regardless that wait occasions at Magic Kingdom, EPCOT, Hollywood Studios, and Animal Kingdom are what they’re–60 minutes is objectively decrease than 2 hours–the subject is definitely extra sophisticated than that for a couple of causes.
One cause for that is that everybody has a distinct body of reference or tolerance for crowds. What feels busy to me might be very totally different than your expectations. Regardless that wait occasions are what they’re, some folks could not suppose points of interest–any of them–with hour-long waits qualifies as a day with low crowds. As a normal rule, we discover that first-timers are nearly at all times stunned by crowds (and prices!) being worse than anticipated except they’ve in depth expertise with standard regional amusement parks like Six Flags and Cedar Level.
For longtime Disney diehards, prior visits play an enormous position in perceptions. Walt Disney World has had a veritable attendance curler coaster, with numbers rising considerably by a number of million folks over the course of the decade-plus culminating in 2019. Then attendance plummeted for a year-plus, spiked because of revenge journey for two years, and is now coming again to actuality on the bottom of pent-up demand.
Suffice to say, your particular person notion of crowds could range significantly based mostly on when your prior journeys occurred. It’s additionally potential that longtime Walt Disney World followers view the parks by the rose-colored glasses of nostalgia. We’ll be the primary to confess that we personally do that! I might battle to call negatives from our journeys a decade in the past.
Not as a result of they have been good (I’ve journey experiences documenting the downsides), however as a result of my thoughts filters out the dangerous and largely simply retains the great. That’s most likely why so many people are lifelong followers within the first place–however that’s one other matter for an additional day.
Past this, there are additionally a number of different variables that may influence “looks like” crowds, together with however not restricted to festivals at EPCOT, climate, visitor demographics, trip breakdowns, operational effectivity, wait occasions manipulation, youth sporting occasions, tour teams, and park working hours. That is only a partial record, and all of these are vital variables proper now.
It’s completely potential that two households may go to throughout the identical timeframe and have dramatically totally different experiences–not simply differing perceptions of the identical factor. Let’s say this have been throughout Celebration Season, one selected park days poorly, had a extra laid again strategy, received caught in strains behind youth sporting teams, and unfortunate with trip breakdowns. The opposite selected parks correctly, adopted savvy technique to beat crowds, and received fortunate with all the pieces.
This may occasionally appear unlikely, however we see precisely this within the feedback or through social media reactions nearly each time we publish wait occasions experiences. Two readers, roughly the identical dates, and radically totally different experiences. With out fail. It doesn’t even take “all the pieces” going mistaken. Go to throughout cheer season and find yourself in line for Haunted Mansion behind what looks like hundreds of under-supervised tweens and that will probably be indelibly etched into your reminiscence. (Okay, I lied in regards to the negatives fading away–that is one I’ll always remember. We snicker at it now, but it surely was like ultra-strength contraception when it occurred over a decade in the past!)
One other is that crowds have develop into a heated difficulty as Disney has develop into a polarizing firm. Some followers, former followers, or simply random folks view Walt Disney World attendance by a political lens. If it’s down, it’s an indication that their “facet” is profitable and boycotts or no matter is working. And vice-versa for the opposite facet and better crowds. To not point out followers who really feel a vested curiosity within the firm, and cheer on greater attendance and even costs in the identical means followers have develop into keen about field workplace outcomes.
However we’re getting forward of ourselves. Extra on this and a bunch of different components on the record itself. Let’s dig into the methods Walt Disney World followers will be mistaken about crowds–within the type of particular quotes we’ve heard, adopted by our rebuttals…
“There’s No Off-Season Anymore…”
For the final decade-plus, some followers have been saying, “there’s no low season at Walt Disney World anymore.” They stated this when Magic Kingdom attendance was 18 million in 2013, in 2019 when it was 21 million, in 2021 when it was 13 million, and in 2023 when it was 18 million.
Regardless of the ups and downs – by a number of thousands and thousands of visitors per yr (and even greater share modifications for the opposite parks) – “there’s no such factor as low season at Walt Disney World” has been a preferred chorus. That is largely as a result of crowds have been considerably decrease throughout the Nice Recession and working hours have been longer. (Bear in mind when Night Further Magic Hours have been 3 hours?!)
Many longtime followers are coming at this from the angle that ‘looks like’ crowds, throughout the board, are worse now than they have been throughout comparable timeframes in 2008 to 2010, post-9/11, or just about anytime within the Nineties. However the common visitor doesn’t have a time machine, so historic crowd ranges are unhelpful. The operative query is whether or not there are presently significant variations in crowds and wait occasions over the course of the yr. The reply is unequivocally sure.
The 2 busiest days of the final yr have been December 29-30, each of which averaged a 70 minute wait time throughout all points of interest at Walt Disney World. That’s an astronomical quantity (keep in mind, it counts all the pieces that posts a wait time) that simply clears the bar for a ten/10 crowd degree. A wait time quarter-hour decrease would nonetheless be a ten/10! Zooming out a bit, the week between Christmas and New Yr’s averaged a 61 minute wait time.
Against this, the slowest two day stretch of the yr was August 28-29, which had common wait occasions of 19 and 20 minutes, barely registering a 1/10 crowd degree. That total week was the slowest of the yr, with a 23 minute common and 1/10 wait time. I don’t learn about you, however I see a huge distinction between 23 minutes and 61 minutes.
Let’s say we throw out the extremes, and evaluate mid-September to mid-October of final yr. We’re nonetheless a ~20 minute distinction in averages. And that’s throughout the board, which means that multiplied out by a half-dozen points of interest all through the day, you’re 2 hours extra (or much less) spent ready in line.
Look, I get why longtime followers grumble about present crowds and say there’s no low season anymore. It’s irritating that crowds are worse as we speak than they have been a decade or extra in the past. However on the similar time, it’s inconsistent with actuality to say that there’s no such factor as an low season when peak wait occasions will be double or triple the sluggish season.
“Wait Occasions Had been Above an Hour…”
On the threat of belaboring the purpose, the numbers above are averages. The perpetual no or low wait points of interest like Swiss Household Treehouse, Carousel of Progress, MuppetVision 3D, Trip Enjoyable, Nation Bear Musical Jamboree–in addition to different exhibits or movies–are dragging down the numbers.
Which means that should you’re doing solely the “massive” rides, your common wait time again on December 29-30 wouldn’t have been 70 minutes–it might’ve been properly over 2 hours. In truth, the typical wait time vary for headliners on a 8/10 to 9/10 day is in that neighborhood: 90 to 120 minutes. It’s even worse on 10/10 days, nevermind 10+/10 days.
Against this, the headliner common on 2/10 to three/10 days is 65 to 75 minutes. That’s even because the resort-wide common is round half-hour. The underside line is that below-average or low crowd ranges don’t imply each trip is a walk-on! You’ll nonetheless encounter lengthy strains at TRON Lightcycle Run, Seven Dwarfs Mine Practice, Peter Pan’s Flight, Slinky Canine Sprint, Remy’s Ratatouille Journey, Avatar Flight of Passage, and so on–they simply received’t be almost as dangerous as throughout peak season. One hour is loads lower than two hours!
“We Had been Packed Like Sardines for Fireworks…”
Sadly, uncomfortable congestion is the not-so-new regular for fireworks at Magic Kingdom. It was already dangerous with Disney Enchantment, and has solely gotten worse because the good fireworks got here again.
For the sake of illustration, let’s say that there are–on common–40,000 folks in Magic Kingdom in direction of the top of a busy night time. On a slower day, let’s say the quantity is 20,000 folks–half the variety of a busy day. Now let’s assume that 10,000 folks match on or round Most important Road USA.
These are hypothetical numbers…however do you see the issue? Whether or not it’s a sluggish or busy night time, the variety of folks eager to see Fortunately Ever After exceeds the capability of the viewing areas on and round Most important Road. One is way above capability and the opposite is “solely” barely above it. However, when a excessive share of visitors within the park are concentrated right into a small space of Magic Kingdom, that’s going to create crowding, no matter whether or not it’s a sluggish or busy day as a complete.
In case you go to from August by December, it’s even worse because of the Halloween and Christmas Events decreasing the variety of “free” fireworks per week. It’s nonetheless a math drawback, however now you’re additionally introducing Park Hopping and several other days’ price of demand right into a single night time. There already isn’t sufficient capability on an everyday day, now think about doubling it.
“30 Minutes of Early Entry is Ineffective…”
That is one other a type of “burden of data” situations. Too many Walt Disney World followers underestimate Early Entry, and are aggravated that it’s shorter than the defunct morning Further Magic Hours. Many don’t use it in any respect, dismissing it as “solely” half-hour and thus not definitely worth the time.
To make certain, Early Entry will not be that nice at Magic Kingdom–no less than, not till TRON Lightcycle Run (inevitably) joins the trip roster. That’s the one park the place Lightning Lane Multi Go makes essentially the most sense and common rope drop is simply pretty much as good as Early Entry (perhaps higher). Nevertheless, at 2 of the 4 parks, Early Entry is wonderful. (At EPCOT, it’s solely okay till Take a look at Observe reopens or Cosmic Rewind ditches the VQ.)
Between it and common rope drop, you’ll be able to usually accomplish and save extra time than a whole day with Lightning Lanes, and with out spending any extra cash. We’ve step-by-step methods for Early Entry and park opening in our Information to Early Entry at Walt Disney World.
“Magic Kingdom Was Nuts on… [Insert Day, Most Likely Monday]”
Followers underestimate simply how a lot day of the week issues at Walt Disney World. A part of the explanation the low season is sluggish is as a result of not everybody can go to when faculty is in session, or desires to go to when the climate is less-than-desirable.
However nearly anybody can alter their park days inside the week they’re already planning on doing Walt Disney World. And few issues make as a lot of a distinction as merely shifting Magic Kingdom from a Monday to a Sunday. That alone will prevent 5 minutes per attraction on common!
That will not appear to be a lot given the above sluggish versus peak season distinction, however right here we’re speaking about sooner or later to the subsequent, each single week. We’re pretty assured that anybody embracing savvy technique–like we espouse right here–can simply knock out a dozen points of interest a day at Magic Kingdom, which means that 5 minutes is an hour much less/extra ready in line!
Oh, and that’s additionally the typical Sunday vs. Monday unfold over your complete yr. Throughout Celebration Season, that unfold is roughly 7-10 minutes. One of many largest strategic blunders you can also make is doing Magic Kingdom on a non-party Monday (or Wednesday and Saturday, for that matter) in November or December. (See Greatest & Worst Days to Do Magic Kingdom Throughout Celebration Season.)
“EPCOT Was Wild on the Weekend…”
EPCOT is the largest “native’s park” at Walt Disney World, and Floridians are extra inclined to go to on Saturdays and Sundays after they’re off work or faculty. That is really one state of affairs the place followers are each mistaken and proper. EPCOT is wild on the weekends, or no less than, it may be.
This can be a state of affairs the place analyzing wait time knowledge can get you into hassle, as you may (incorrectly) conclude that EPCOT isn’t any worse on the weekends. That’s true from a quantitative perspective, however not from a qualitative one. Wait occasions don’t inform the complete story–and even the principle one–relating to EPCOT on weekends.
Since locals are much less prone to do rides, they add to ‘looks like’ crowds and congestion at EPCOT on weekends with out making attraction wait occasions noticeably worse. That is nonetheless a unfavourable, as strains for meals cubicles are longer and World Showcase is usually much less nice on the weekends.
You’re additionally extra prone to encounter teams Ingesting Across the World on Saturday and Sunday, particularly when UCF has away video games within the fall. Like our Haunted Mansion cheerleader instance above, we now have vivid (unfavourable) recollections about World Showcase feeling like an open air frat social gathering (fortunately, this isn’t as dangerous because it was once). If that is your measure of wildness, EPCOT is 100% extra wild on weekends. If wild is slang for ‘excessive wait occasions’ then EPCOT is definitely wildest on Monday or Tuesday and least-wild on Thursday or Friday.
“Resorts Are Bought Out, So the Parks Should Be Crowded…”
Every time Walt Disney World broadcasts a brand new lodge or DVC resort, there’s a typical criticism amongst followers that the parks are already too crowded. This shouldn’t hassle me, as I agree with the animating concept that Disney ought to focus its sources on points of interest and the issues that make these lodges viable within the first place.
But I simply can not assist myself, and infrequently level out that most visitors to the parks come from off-site. That Walt Disney World doesn’t exist in a vacuum, and that total lodge stock in Central Florida dictates crowds greater than the on-site room rely. That if demand for extra lodging is there, somebody goes to fill it. A minimum of Disney constructing it gives the corporate with cashflow and an incentive to enhance the parks (properly, in concept).
An analogous thought applies with Walt Disney World lodge occupancy numbers. Bought out lodges can be an indication of upper attendance, or simply as simply is usually a signal that there are main conventions or youth sporting occasions at or round Walt Disney World. These demographics are much less prone to go to the parks, so conventions or sporting occasions ‘blocking’ out rooms can arguably be a internet constructive for crowds.
All of that is mentioned in larger element in Why Are Walt Disney World Resorts Bought Out?, however the backside line is that lodge occupancy will not be a superb proxy for crowds. (By its very nature, Disney Trip Membership is designed to function at near 100% occupancy–so no DVC resort availability is totally meaningless.)
“ADRs Are All Gone…”
Very comparable thought right here as with bought out lodges. The important thing distinction is that restaurant capability is usually even decrease than lodge capability and demand is usually greater. That means {that a} lack of availability for House 220 Lounge or Storybook Eating at Artist Level, which might be able to serve hourly visitor counts measured within the dozens, is pretty meaningless.
The instance we at all times used to offer right here is ADRs throughout the Free Eating ‘season’ of August and September. Reservations for even reasonably standard eating places could be scarce, as visitors benefiting from the low cost wolfed up the entire ADRs. In flip, WDW planners would see this lack of availability and fear that crowds could be catastrophic. However they weren’t–these dates continued to be solidly low season regardless of ADR availability (or relatively, lack thereof).
All of that is previous tense as a result of Free Eating season this yr was not dangerous in any respect. Eerily so. As a normal matter, ADRs have gotten simpler throughout the board, apart from sizzling tickets just like the Candlelight Processional Eating Bundle. However once more, that’s extra a matter of restricted provide than sky-high demand.
“I’ve Gone This Week Each Yr for a Decade…”
“…And I’ve by no means seen Walt Disney World this busy!” Admittedly, this one is hard to elucidate away. Giving folks the good thing about the doubt with statements like this (that are fairly frequent on social media), I believe there are a couple of components at play.
One is that now versus 2019 or earlier will not be an apples to apples comparability. Possibly they have been FastPass+ energy customers who refuse to purchase Lightning Lanes on precept (kudos to them–combat the great combat!). Possibly they received actually unfortunate, choosing to go to every park on its busiest day, getting caught behind massive teams, encountering extreme trip breakdowns, and so on. Possibly they’re viewing the previous by the rose-colored glasses of nostalgia, remembering the great and forgetting the dangerous. (Do these similar folks say the identical factor, with out realizing it, nearly each single yr?)
Actually, I don’t know learn how to totally clarify away this. I don’t prefer to be dismissive, particularly to followers with a long time of expertise, however the actuality is that the numbers normally don’t help them–neither the general attendance stats nor the year-over-year wait occasions. Generally they do, however historic crowd ranges don’t solely go within the upward route!
This isn’t only a declare on our half. Throughout earnings calls, CEO Bob Iger and the CFO Hugh Johnston have said brazenly that Walt Disney World attendance is down, and that pattern will proceed into no less than early 2025 (most likely longer given Epic Universe, however that’s us editorializing). They began saying the identical factor final yr, as quickly because the fiftieth Anniversary was over. Suffice to say, 2024 is much less busy than 2023, and 2023 was much less busy than 2022. There are exceptions to that for sure days and weeks, but it surely’s true as an across-the-board generalization.
“Walt Disney World Isn’t Busy As a result of [Insert Personal Politics]”
There’s no denying that we dwell in politically polarized occasions. Or that Disney and Florida have discovered themselves on the epicenter (no, not EPCOT Heart) of the tradition wars. In consequence, everybody desires to mission their very own private politics as the reason for decrease or greater attendance.
Truly, no, not everybody desires to do that. The typical visitor will not be an activist. They don’t a lot care or received’t alter their trip plans attributable to politics. There’s quite a lot of bluster, but it surely’s coming from a vocal minority and perhaps even that group’s personal conduct doesn’t match their phrases.
There are simply a half-dozen higher explanations for Walt Disney World crowd dynamics than politics, particularly since attendance tendencies have had ups and downs within the final couple of years. “Politics” doesn’t clarify low crowds in September, however excessive ones come December. Until everybody has a change of coronary heart and will get into the spirit of the vacation season?
I’m not suggesting that politics have had zero influence on Walt Disney World attendance. I don’t doubt that some households have cancelled journeys because of the perceived politics of Florida or Disney. We’ve heard from many who’ve! However conversely, I additionally suspect others have been enticed to go to because of Disney’s and/or Florida’s perceived politics. To this extent that is occurring, it’s occurring on the margins or is a internet zero, or near it.
Frankly, there have been occasions once I’ve wished attendance to take a success following a few of Walt Disney World’s most controversial modifications. However even after they began charging for resort lodge parking, the top of Disney’s Magical Specific, changing free FastPass with paid Lightning Lanes, and so on., enterprise continued booming.
I want some followers would’ve voted with their wallets to offer Disney pause about these modifications and reverse course, however I received’t confuse what I might’ve preferred to see occur with what really did. (Additionally, I’ll readily admit to being a hypocrite on this regard, since I did no such voting with my very own pockets. Maybe one other lesson to be discovered from the political controversies.)
There’s additionally the truth that we are able to look past Walt Disney World to see different tendencies occurring (or not). For instance, Orlando Worldwide Airport visitors has been by the roof setting file after file within the final year-plus. This implies persons are not avoiding Florida as a complete.
Furthermore, Common Orlando has seen an attendance slowdown that nearly precisely mirrors that of Walt Disney World. (In truth, Comcast has said the decline is bigger throughout latest earnings calls.) In the meantime, Disneyland attendance remained elevated for a full yr after Walt Disney World began to decelerate, whereas California’s tourism numbers additionally outperformed. You can’t reconcile all of that through politics with out Simone Biles-caliber (psychological) gymnastics.
Planning a Walt Disney World journey? Find out about lodges on our Walt Disney World Resorts Opinions web page. For the place to eat, learn our Walt Disney World Restaurant Opinions. To economize on tickets or decide which sort to purchase, learn our Ideas for Saving Cash on Walt Disney World Tickets publish. Our What to Pack for Disney Journeys publish takes a novel have a look at intelligent gadgets to take. For what to do and when to do it, our Walt Disney World Journey Guides will assist. For complete recommendation, the most effective place to begin is our Walt Disney World Journey Planning Information for all the pieces it is advisable to know!
Your Ideas
Do you agree or disagree with our evaluation of Walt Disney World crowds? Suppose that we are literally those within the ‘mistaken’ right here, and followers who say any of the above are literally right? Do you disagree completely, and suppose Walt Disney World has been busier or much less busy throughout the board than regular? Another observations or explanations? Listening to your suggestions about your experiences is each fascinating to us and useful to different readers, so please share your ideas or questions under within the feedback!
